A gradient boosting machine learning approach in modeling the impact of temperature and humidity on the transmission rat
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A gradient boosting machine learning approach in modeling the impact of temperature and humidity on the transmission rate of COVID-19 in India Lokesh Kumar Shrivastav 1,2 & Sunil Kumar Jha 3,4 Accepted: 1 October 2020 # Springer Science+Business Media, LLC, part of Springer Nature 2020
Abstract Meteorological parameters were crucial and effective factors in past infectious diseases, like influenza and severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS), etc. The present study targets to explore the association between the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID19) transmission rates and meteorological parameters. For this purpose, the meteorological parameters and COVID-19 infection data from 28th March 2020 to 22nd April 2020 of different states of India have been compiled and used in the analysis. The gradient boosting model (GBM) has been implemented to explore the effect of the minimum temperature, maximum temperature, minimum humidity, and maximum humidity on the infection count of COVID-19. The optimal performance of the GBM model has been achieved after tuning its parameters. The GBM results in the best accuracy of R2 = 0.95 for prediction of active cases in Maharashtra, and R2 = 0.98 for prediction of recovered cases of COVID-19 in Kerala and Rajasthan, India. Keywords COVID-19 . Atmospheric factors . Artificial intelligence . Gradient boosting model . Predictive modeling
1 Introduction The transmission rate of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has been very fast since its first reported case in December 2019 in Wuhan, China. It has infected over 3, 181, 642 people in 215 countries worldwide and resulted in 224, 301 deaths by 1st May 2020 according to the world health organization [1]. Till now some common symptoms of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) have been identified based on the recognized cases, including fever, tiredness, dry cough, sore throat, and diarrhea, etc. [2, 3]. Though, presently the increasing number of asymptotic patients in some countries
* Sunil Kumar Jha [email protected] 1
University School of Information, Communication & Technology, Guru Gobind Singh Indraprastha University, Delhi 110078, India
2
Atma Ram Sanatan Dharma College, University of Delhi, Delhi 110021, India
3
Informetrics Research Group, Ton Duc Thang University, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam
4
Faculty of Applied Sciences, Ton Duc Thang University, Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam
is a dangerous situation of the society and a challenge for the doctors and health care system [4]. In some studies, the local seafood market of Wuhan, China is identified to be a source of COVID-19 which results in its transmission from bat to human [1, 3, 5, 6]. Still, many researches are going on to explore the transmission route of COVID-19. In most of the infected cases of humans to human transmission through the respiratory tract, it spread due to the human contacts in gathering, meeting with relatives and friends, and between patients and healthcare workers, etc. [7]. Besides surface, the presence of coronavirus in blo
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