A hybrid decision tool for optimizing broccoli production in a changing climate
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RESEARCH REPORT
A hybrid decision tool for optimizing broccoli production in a changing climate Sumin Kim1 · Sojung Kim2 · James R. Kiniry3 · Kang‑Mo Ku4 Received: 8 September 2020 / Revised: 21 October 2020 / Accepted: 2 November 2020 © Korean Society for Horticultural Science 2020
Abstract Climatic changes are already influencing the frequency, magnitude, and duration of extreme weathers (e.g. drought) in California. California is a leading state for vegetable production in United States (U.S.). Since vegetables are very sensitive to extreme weathers, it is critical to evaluate the effects of climate change on yield and to find the potential adaptive management strategies for the sustainable vegetable production. The objectives of this study were to develop a plant-oriented cropping model to evaluate the impacts of different cropping managements on yields under various climate condition and atmospheric CO2 levels. To improve modeling performance, numerous previous studies that reported broccoli yields in different managements were used. After model calibration and validation, 560 scenarios under the conditions of combinations of climate changes, four broccoli cultivars, five nitrogen fertilizer application rates, and four plant densities were simulated in two study locations in Monterey County, CA where produces almost 40% of total California broccoli production. Based on results from 33,600 simulations, broccoli yields were highly related to nitrogen fertilizer application. However, at high nitrogen rates (above 75 kg N ha−1), yields were barely changed. In general, under stressful conditions, all cultivars produced their maximum yields at low plant density, and their yields did not respond to addition of nutrient in soil. However, C O2 enrichment and warmer temperature under RCP8.5 pathways, yield responded positively with fertilizer application rate and plant density. It seems likely that the effects of cropping managements will depend upon CO2 level and temperature. Keywords ALMANAC · Broccoli · California · Climate change · Process based crop model Communicated by Jun Gu Lee, Ph.D. Sumin Kim and Sojung Kim have contributed to equally to this work. Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (https://doi.org/10.1007/s13580-020-00317-8) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users. * Kang‑Mo Ku [email protected] 1
Department of Environmental Horticulture and Landscape Architecture, College of Life Science and Biotechnology, Dankook University, #119, Dandae‑ro, Dongnamgu, Cheonan‑si,, Chungnam 31116, Republic of Korea
2
Department of Industrial and Systems Engineering, Dongguk University-Seoul, #30, Pildong‑ro 1‑gil, Jung‑gu, Seoul 04620, South Korea
3
USDA-ARS, Grassland Soil and Water Research Laboratory, 808 East Blackland Rd. Temple, Riesel, TX 76502, USA
4
Department of Horticulture, College of Agriculture and Life Sciences, Chonnam National University, 77 Yongbong‑dong Buk‑gu, Gwangju 61186, Republic of Korea
1 Introduction Deali
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