A methodology for designing electrification programs for remote areas
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A methodology for designing electrification programs for remote areas Javier León1 · F. Javier Martín-Campo1 · M. Teresa Ortuño1 Begoña Vitoriano1 · Luis Miguel Carrasco2 · Luis Narvarte2
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© The Author(s) 2019
Abstract One of the UN Sustainable Development Goals is the supply of sustainable energy even where no electrical grid is available. The photovoltaic rural electrification programs are the most common systems implemented in remote areas, especially in developing countries. These programs include the systems installation and their maintenance for a given period. Installation costs and even spare parts costs over time are usually well estimated. However, design and cost estimation of the maintenance systems is a difficult task, whose wrong management has often resulted in the failure of these electrification programs. In this work, a methodology for designing maintenance systems and estimating costs is presented. The methodology includes a mixed integer linear programming model and a rule based expert system. The mathematical programming model allows obtaining the optimal size and accurate cost estimation of a maintenance system, based on precise information about the installed systems. This model is calibrated and validated with real running programs and will be used to get an enlarged data set of simulated cases if needed. The rule based expert system is obtained from the data set applying classification and regression methods with general information about the region and program to be run. It can be used for designing programs or for companies making decisions about being involved in a program to be developed. The methodology has been applied to real Morocco programs. Keywords Sustainable development · Photovoltaic energy · Maintenance · Integer optimization · Expert systems
1 Introduction Human development is a concept that has evolved over time, increasingly incorporating concepts beyond the purely economic. On the UN General Assembly of 2015, a set of
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Javier León [email protected]
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J. León et al.
Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) was debated and accepted by the participating countries for the period 2015–2030 (Division for Sustainable Development 2015). The 7th of the 17 established goals, “ensure access to affordable, reliable, sustainable and modern energy for all”, contains the targets proposed related to energy: 7.1 by 2030 ensure universal access to affordable, reliable, and modern energy services 7.2 increase substantially the share of renewable energy in the global energy mix by 2030 7.3 double the global rate of improvement in energy efficiency by 2030 7.a by 2030 enhance international cooperation to facilitate access to clean energy research and technologies, including renewable energy, energy efficiency, and advanced and cleaner fossil fuel technologies, and promote investment in energy infrastructure and clean energy technologies 7.b by 2030 expand infrastructure and upgrade technology for supplying modern a
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