A model for predicting dropouts from physical activity interventions in leisure centres
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ORIGINAL ARTICLE
A model for predicting dropouts from physical activity interventions in leisure centres Ivan Clavel San Emeterio1 · Eliseo Iglesias‑Soler1 · Jorge Garcia‑Unanue2 · Leonor Gallardo2 · Xian Mayo3 Received: 26 February 2019 / Accepted: 13 February 2020 © Springer-Verlag Italia S.r.l., part of Springer Nature 2020
Abstract Purpose Leisure centres are one of the main places where people exercise. This study investigated the behaviour of these users for a year to analyse the plausible difference in behaviour between users dropping out and those who do not. In addition, it is also intended to identify the behavioural variables to establish the probability of dropping out from a leisure centre. Methods Monthly data related to the current behaviour of 14,522 adult members of three different leisure centres in Spain (one from Tudela, two from Zaragoza) were recorded from January to December of 2014 by the management software. A logistic regression model was implemented to predict dropping outs considering the different variables that explained the behaviour of the users (dropping out or not). Results Users who dropped out were characterised by being younger, with shorter memberships and lower uses of the facilities. The design of a predictive model with these variables helped to establish the probability of users leaving the centre obtaining a discriminatory power of 77% between those who dropped out and those that do not. Conclusion The results of this study will help to design better interventions aimed to avoid dropping out of physical activity programmes. Keywords Adherence · Exercise · Drop out · Management · Behaviour
Introduction Physical inactivity is defined as individuals not meeting the weekly “Global Recommendations” of physical activity. It is widely evidenced that physical inactivity is one of the main risk factors of non-communicable diseases and is responsible for a quarter of the world’s deaths [1]. Considering this fact, the World Health Organization aims to reduce physical inactivity in the European Region by 10% before 2025 [2].
* Ivan Clavel San Emeterio [email protected] 1
Department of Physical Education and Sports, Faculty of Sports Sciences and Physical Education, University of A Coruna, A Coruña, Spain
2
Physical Activity and Sport Sciences Department, IGOID Research Group, University of Castilla-La Mancha, Toledo, Spain
3
Observatory of Healthy & Active Living of Spain Active Foundation, Centre for Sport Studies, King Juan Carlos University, Madrid, Spain
Physical inactivity levels are responsible for 13.4% of deaths a year in Spain, some 52,000 lives. This represents an economic burden of 1,560 million Euro, of which 70.5% is financed by public administrations [3]. However, Eurobarometer’s published since 2009 show an increase in the population that does not exercise, standing at 46% of the population according to the latest Eurobarometer [4]. It is policymaker’s responsibility to search for strategies to reduce physical inactivity like capturing those p
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