A novel dynamic predictive method of water inrush from coal floor based on gated recurrent unit model
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A novel dynamic predictive method of water inrush from coal floor based on gated recurrent unit model Yonggang Zhang1,2,3 · Lining Yang2,4 Received: 31 March 2020 / Accepted: 17 October 2020 © Springer Nature B.V. 2020
Abstract For water inrush from coal floor, due to different kinds of controlling factors and their internal correlations, the accuracy of prediction model is mostly below expectation. In this paper, it studies on which controlling factors should be selected for water inrush prediction model because all these factors have different influence on water inrush incidents based on the analysis of in situ data. Some factors are proved having limited impacts on water inrush, it is no necessary to collect in situ data of those factors from coal mining work face. Therefore, the workload and expense will decrease. In this paper, an index system of factors influencing water inrush from coal floor is established based on the current water inrush controlling theory and detailed analysis of in situ data obtained from mining regions. Following the Wrapper method in feature selection, 10 main controlling factors were selected from 14 existing indicators which were thought could affect water inrush. After training on dynamic GRU model which is made for water inrush prediction, a comparison among dynamic GRU model and stable SVM and BPMN models turns out the advantages of the previous with a higher accuracy in train, validation and test set against the latter. It is believed GRU model is able to predict water inrush water inrush from coal floor with high accuracy and hence enhances mining safety. Keywords Water inrush from coal floor · Feature selection · Gated recurrent unit neural network · Dynamic prediction
* Lining Yang [email protected] Yonggang Zhang [email protected] 1
Department of Geotechnical Engineering, Tongji University, Shanghai 200092, China
2
School of Resources and Geosciences, China University of Mining and Technology, Xuzhou 221000, China
3
China Geological Survey, Beijing 100037, China
4
Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences, University of Manchester, Manchester M13 9PL, UK
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Natural Hazards
1 Introduction Coal mine production is a vital energy source in China, although the Chinese government seeks a future decrease in coal consumption (Li et al. 2019). The competition between coal companies under the national policy hence forces the industrial upgrading in coal mine production. How to improve the mineral productivity with the prerequisite, production safety, is an urgent mission for those coal companies. Water inrush from coal seam floor is a huge danger when producing (Pang et al. 2014). The lack understand on the occurrence of water inrush is still a catastrophic threat although massive theories and in situ tests have been proposed and carried out. To study the law of water inrush in mining, the method by calculating the water inrush coefficient was first proposed in 1960s (Peng et al. 2003). Massive modifications
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