A Simple Model for Gonorrhea Dynamics
The SIS model in section 2.1 where susceptibles become infectious and then susceptible again is based on the careful description in Chapter 1 of the characteristics of gonorrhea: there is negligible protective immunity, negligible latent period and neglig
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56 Herbert W Hethcote James A. Yorke
Gonorrhea Transmission Dynamics and Control
Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg GmbH
Editorial Board
H. J. Bremermann J.D. Cowan W. Hirsch S. Karlin J. B. Keller M. Kimura S. Levin (Managing Editor) R. C. Lewontin R. May J.D. Murray G. F. Oster AS. Perelson T. Poggio L. A Segel Authors
Herbert W. Hethcote Department of Mathematics, University of Iowa Iowa City, lA 52242, USA James A Yorke Institute for Physical Science and Technology and Department of Mathematics, University of Maryland College Park, MD 20742, USA
AMS Subject Classification (1980): 92A 15 ISBN 978-3-540-13870-9 ISBN 978-3-662-07544-9 (eBook) DOI 10.1007/978-3-662-07544-9 This work is subject to copyright. All rights are reserved, whether the whole or part of the material is concerned, specifically those of translation, reprinting, re-use of illustrations, broadcasting, reproduction by photocopying machine or similar means, and storage in data banks. Under § 54 of the German Copyright Law where copies are made for other than private use, a fee is payable to "Verwertungsgesellschaft Wort", Munich. ©Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 1984 Originally published by Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg New York Tokyo 1984
Foreword The success of public health programs depends both upon the logical application of proven strategies and also upon a healthy understanding of what is unknown. The work depicted in this monograph provides an excellent example of displaying the known and unknown about the epidemiology of gonorrhea. The authors have modeled their data in a way that was extremely useful in formulating approaches to gonorrhea control at the national level. Their efforts are a good example of how mathematical modeling has more than just theoretical utility. The authors' research has helped eliminate a number of misconceptions which we had about gonorrhea epidemiology. In large part because of this work, we now believe (1) that gonorrhea prevalence adjusts rapidly to both changes in sexual behavior and also activities of control programs, (2) that prevalence oscillates seasonally around an equilibrium state determined by the current social and medical conditions, and (3) that this equilibrium moves as epidemiological conditions change. These ideas are important in evaluating the effects of our programs and in formulating new approaches. The depiction of a highly sexually-active "core" population, which is highly infected and causes a large fraction of all new cases of gonorrhea, has been quite stimulating. This concept of the core, and the resultant emphasis on "efficient transmitters," was a major factor which influenced revision of national strategies to control gonorrhea. Academic experts and practical public health officials alike will find this monograph to be a very valuable example of the utility of modelling to influence disease control programs. Public policy decisions depend on accurate information processed through objective analytic minds; use of models--including the discipline of decision analysis--
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