A study protocol for the development of a multivariable model predicting 6- and 12-month mortality for people with demen
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(2020) 4:17
PROTOCOL
Diagnostic and Prognostic Research
Open Access
A study protocol for the development of a multivariable model predicting 6- and 12month mortality for people with dementia living in residential aged care facilities (RACFs) in Australia Ross Bicknell1* , Wen Kwang Lim1, Andrea B. Maier1,2 and Dina LoGiuidice1
Abstract Background: For residential aged care facility (RACF) residents with dementia, lack of prognostic guidance presents a significant challenge for end of life care planning. In an attempt to address this issue, models have been developed to assess mortality risk for people with advanced dementia, predominantly using long-term care minimum data set (MDS) information from the USA. A limitation of these models is that the information contained within the MDS used for model development was not collected for the purpose of identifying prognostic factors. The models developed using MDS data have had relatively modest ability to discriminate mortality risk and are difficult to apply outside the MDS setting. This study will aim to develop a model to estimate 6- and 12-month mortality risk for people with dementia from prognostic indicators recorded during usual clinical care provided in RACFs in Australia. Methods: A secondary analysis will be conducted for a cohort of people with dementia from RACFs participating in a cluster-randomized trial of a palliative care education intervention (IMPETUS-D). Ten prognostic indicator variables were identified based on a literature review of clinical features associated with increased mortality for people with dementia living in RACFs. Variables will be extracted from RACF files at baseline and mortality measured at 6 and 12 months after baseline data collection. A multivariable logistic regression model will be developed for 6- and 12-month mortality outcome measures using backwards elimination with a fractional polynomial approach for continuous variables. Internal validation will be undertaken using bootstrapping methods. Discrimination of the model for 6- and 12-month mortality will be presented as receiver operating curves with c statistics. Calibration curves will be presented comparing observed and predicted event rates for each decile of risk as well as flexible calibration curves derived using loess-based functions. (Continued on next page)
* Correspondence: [email protected] 1 Department of Medicine and Aged Care, @AgeMelbourne, Melbourne Health–Royal Melbourne Hospital, University of Melbourne, 6 North Main Building, Royal Melbourne Hospital, 300 Grattan Street, Parkville, Victoria 3050, Australia Full list of author information is available at the end of the article © The Author(s). 2020 Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes w
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