After the Arab Spring: an opportunity for scenarios
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ORIGINAL ARTICLE
After the Arab Spring: an opportunity for scenarios P. W. F. Van Notten
Received: 29 July 2013 / Accepted: 17 October 2013 # The Author(s) 2013. This article is published with open access at Springerlink.com
Keywords Arab Spring . Middle East . Scenario development . Discontinuity
while opinions differ widely and loudly over visions of the future and the steps needed to achieve them, they are perhaps united in their uncertainty over the outcome of the upheavals. This paper first argues that, more than before the Arab Spring, the disruptions in the Middle East cry out for a long view. Second, it explains that the upheavals provide an opportunity for scenario development to prove its worth by providing outlooks that inform Western policy decisions. The third section, however, argues that scenario methodology is inadequate for informing decision making on the contemporary Middle Eastern upheavals. The paper will outline some of the methodological challenges. It will also suggest improvements and alternative uses for scenarios for the Arab Spring Middle East.
Introduction
Why the Arab Spring Middle East matters
On December 17th, 2010, an exasperated Mohammed Bouazizi set himself alight in an ultimate act of protest after a brush with local authorities. In death, the Tunisian street vendor thumbed his nose at those authoritarian officials who he felt belittled by over the years. His defiant act triggered a wave of protest so large that it unseated long time Tunisian president Zine El Abidine Ben Ali within a month. The knockon effect across the region was both large and unforeseen. Bouazizi's self-immolation was an unlikely trigger of regional upheaval. Yet 2,5 years after his act sparked the Arab Spring, the Middle East especially is the scene of conflict that resonates far beyond its borders, including Europe. Coming on top of existent tensions, the upheavals have forced the hand of leaders of various stripes in uncomfortable directions. And
To argue that Middle Eastern developments resonate in the West is to state the obvious. The extension of Islam and muslim migration to Europe are commonplace examples of Middle Eastern influence elsewhere. Similarly obvious is the large Western stake in the region as exemplified by the United States’ unwavering commitment to Israel. It is beyond the scope of this paper to explore the historic relationship between the West and the Middle East sufficiently to do it justice. However, it is worth noting aspects of recent history in order to explore Western interest in the region today. The interests of Western and some Middle Eastern powers converged with the 1991 Gulf War, when a broad political and military coalition was formed to protect oil interests in Kuwait and Saudi Arabia, although the rhetoric at the time trumpeted a mainly ideological and humanitarian cause. A dynamic mix of related and sometimes conflicting interests continues to the present. To illustrate, the Western, Christian presence on Saudi Arabia’s holy Islamic soil during the Gulf War stok
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