All the Best Polls Agree with Me: Bias in Evaluations of Political Polling
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All the Best Polls Agree with Me: Bias in Evaluations of Political Polling Gabriel J. Madson1 · D. Sunshine Hillygus1
© Springer Science+Business Media, LLC, part of Springer Nature 2019
Abstract Do Americans consider polling results an objective source of information? Experts tend to evaluate the credibility of polls based on the survey methods used, vendor track record, and data transparency, but it is unclear if the public does the same. In two different experimental studies—one focusing on candidate evaluations in the 2016 U.S. election and one on a policy issue—we find a significant factor in respondent assessments of polling credibility to be the poll results themselves. Respondents viewed polls as more credible when majority opinion matched their opinion. Moreover, we find evidence of attitude polarization after viewing polling results, suggesting motivated reasoning in the evaluations of political polls. These findings indicate that evaluations of polls are biased by motivated reasoning and suggest that such biases could constrain the possible impact of polls on political decision making. Keywords Polling · Poll evaluation · Public opinion · Motivated reasoning · Cognitive bias Public opinion polling plays a central role in politics and policy-making. Polling numbers dominate news headlines, shape candidate messaging, and inform voter decision-making. Polls have become increasingly prolific in recent years, largely A previous version of this paper was presented at the 2017 annual meeting of the Southern Political Science Association. We thank anonymous reviewers, Chris Johnston, and Steven Snell for valuable feedback. Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (https://doi.org/10.1007/s1110 9-019-09532-1) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users. * Gabriel J. Madson [email protected] D. Sunshine Hillygus [email protected] 1
Duke University, Durham, USA
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Political Behavior
fueled by the rise of internet polling and entrepreneurial pollsters feeding poll aggregation websites like fivethirtyeight.com and realclearpolitics.com (Jackson 2018). At the same time, there is increasing recognition of the many challenges to polling methodology. People have become harder to reach and are less likely to cooperate if you reach them (Atkeson and Alvarez 2018; Zukin 2015; Hillygus and Guay 2016). The 2016 U.S. presidential election appeared to be an especially hard one for the reputation of the polling industry. Pre-election polls and forecasts consistently predicted that Democrat Hillary Clinton would win a resounding victory over Republican Donald Trump, but he surprised the world by winning 56.8% of the electoral college vote to capture the presidency.1 Some have suggested that the polling industry is now “teetering on the edge of disaster” (Blumenthal 2016). A 2017 poll found that just 37% of registered voters have a “great deal” or “a good amount” of trust in public opinion polling.2 Although the nature and influence
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