An improved evidential DEMATEL identify critical success factors under uncertain environment
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ORIGINAL RESEARCH
An improved evidential DEMATEL identify critical success factors under uncertain environment Xueqian Shang1 · Moxian Song1 · Kai Huang1 · Wen Jiang1,2 Received: 26 April 2019 / Accepted: 13 October 2019 © Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature 2019
Abstract How to improve emergency management is still an open issue. In real application, since it is unpractical to optimize all of influential factors, a feasible way is to find out the critical success factors (CSF) to improve. In this paper, the existing evidential DEMATEL method is improved to be more reasonable. Inspired by belief entropy, a new function which is used to calculate the reliability of the information is defined. Then, DEMATEL method is applied on each fused BPA multiplied by the reliability coefficient to seek for a final result. Finally, five critical success factors are figured out. By optimizing these five factors, the effectiveness and efficiency of the whole emergency management system could be greatly promoted. Keywords Emergency management · Critical success factor · Dempster–Shafer theory · Belief entropy · DEMATEL method
1 Introduction As natural disasters and human accidents occur frequently in recent years, people are gradually aware of the importance of emergency management. Due to the fact that many factors of human, natural or equipment, disasters and accidents can not be completely avoided, an efficient emergency management has become the key to reducing the loss of disasters and ensuring the safety of public life and property. However, how to build an efficient emergency management remains to be a puzzle now. There is a wide-spread concern over the issue of the optimization of emergency management. And a large quantity of research has been done. For example, Hernández and Serrano (2001) proposed
* Wen Jiang [email protected]; [email protected] Xueqian Shang [email protected] Moxian Song [email protected] Kai Huang [email protected] 1
School of Electronics and Information, Northwestern Polytechnical University, Xi’an 710072, Shaanxi, China
Peng Cheng Laboratory, Shenzhen, China
2
the use of advanced knowledge models to support environmental emergency management as an adequate response to the current needs and technology. Mendonca et al. (2007) used the emergent interoperability approach to address unanticipated contingencies during emergency response. Huang et al. (2016) developed the Internet of intelligences to drive a risk radar monitoring dynamic risks for emergency management in community. Since it is not realistic to improve all influencing factors, a more feasible way is used to identify the system requirements and to find out the most urgent and important factors. These factors are named critical success factors(CSFs) (Zhou et al. 2011). CSF has a wide application in many areas (Mangla et al. 2016; Ram et al. 2013, 2014; Disterheft et al. 2015). If these factors are improved, the efficiency of emergency management can be greatly facilitated. The process o
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