Analysing Seasonal Health Data
Seasonal patterns have been found in a remarkable range of health conditions, including birth defects, respiratory infections and cardiovascular disease. Accurately estimating the size and timing of seasonal peaks in disease incidence is an aid to underst
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Adrian G. Barnett · Annette J. Dobson
Analysing Seasonal Health Data
13
Statistics for Biology and Health Series M. Gail K. Krickeberg J. Samet A. Tsiatis W. Wong
For further volumes: http://www.springer.com/series/2848
Adrian G. Barnett · Annette J. Dobson
Analysing Seasonal Health Data
123
Dr. Adrian G. Barnett Queensland University of Technology Institute Health and Biomedical Innovation and School of Public Health 60 Musk Avenue Kelvin Grove QLD 4059 Australia [email protected]
Prof. Annette J. Dobson University of Queensland School of Population Health Herston Road Herston QLD 4006 Australia [email protected]
ISSN 1431-8776 ISBN 978-3-642-10747-4 e-ISBN 978-3-642-10748-1 DOI 10.1007/978-3-642-10748-1 Springer Heidelberg Dordrecht London New York Library of Congress Control Number: 2009942900
© Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2010 This work is subject to copyright. All rights are reserved, whether the whole or part of the material is concerned, specifically the rights of translation, reprinting, reuse of illustrations, recitation, broadcasting, reproduction on microfilm or in any other way, and storage in data banks. Duplication of this publication or parts thereof is permitted only under the provisions of the German Copyright Law of September 9, 1965, in its current version, and permissions for use must always be obtained from Springer. Violations are liable for prosecution under the German Copyright Law. The use of general descriptive names, registered names, trademarks, etc. in this publication does not imply, even in the absence of a specific statement, that such names are exempt from the relevant protective laws and regulations and therefore free for general use. Printed on acid-free paper Springer is part of Springer Science+Business Media (www.springer.com)
To Hope, Mum and Dad
Preface
Seasonality in disease was first recognised by Hippocrates (460–370 BC) who said, “All diseases occur at all seasons of the year, but certain of them are more apt to occur and be exacerbated at certain seasons.” We first encountered seasonality when examining time series of cardiovascular disease. We found a strong seasonal pattern with increases in winter and decreases in summer. Rather oddly, we found that warmer climates showed the biggest seasonal changes. This odd pattern was explained by studies which found that populations in colder climates had better insulated homes and wore more clothes in cold weather. Recent studies that improved home insulation found an improvement in residents’ general health and reductions in their blood pressure. By investigating seasonal patterns in disease it is possible to generate hypotheses about aetiology. The changes in the seasons cause changes in many environmental and social variables. These changes are repeated year after year and create a natural experiment for studying links between seasonal exposure and disease. This book details a wide variety of methods for investigating seasonal patterns in disease. We use a range of health examples based on dat
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