Analysis and Estimation of COVID-19 Spreading in Russia Based on ARIMA Model
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COVID-19
Analysis and Estimation of COVID-19 Spreading in Russia Based on ARIMA Model Lanlan Fang 1 & Dingjian Wang 1 & Guixia Pan 1 Accepted: 24 September 2020 # Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2020
Abstract Russia has been currently in the “hard-hit” area of the COVID-19 outbreak, with more than 396,000 confirmed cases as of May 30. It is necessary to analyze and predict its epidemic situation to help formulate effective public health policies. Autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models were developed to predict the cumulative confirmed, dead, and recovered cases, respectively. R 3.6.2 software was used to fit the data from January 31 to May 20, 2020, and predict the data for the next 30 days. The COVID-19 epidemic in Russia was divided into two stages and reached its peak in May. The epidemic began to stabilize on May 19. The case fatality rate has been at an extremely low level. ARIMA (2,2,1), ARIMA (3,2,0), and ARIMA (0,2,1) were the models of cumulative confirmed, dead, and recovered cases, respectively. After testing, the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of three models were 0.6, 3.9, and 2.4, respectively. This paper indicates that Russia’s health system capacity can effectively respond to the COVID-19 pandemic. Three ARIMA models have a good fitting effect and can be used for short-term prediction of the COVID-19 trend, providing a theoretical basis for Russia to formulate new intervention policies. Keywords COVID-19 . Time series . Estimation . ARIMA . Russia
Introduction Since January 2020, a new coronavirus from Wuhan, China, has been spreading around the world and is named coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). Since the World War II, the COVID-19 pandemic is the most serious global crisis, affecting almost all countries on our planet [1]. On March 11, WHO publicly announced COVID-19 as a “global pandemic.” As of May 30, 2020, it infected more than 6 million population and killed more than 367,000 people (https://www.who.int/docs/ default-source/coronaviruse/situation-reports). The pandemic is still growing in most countries and is far from under control. Russia is currently in the “hard-hit” area of the COVID-19
* Guixia Pan [email protected] Lanlan Fang [email protected] Dingjian Wang [email protected] 1
Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Anhui Medical University, 81 Meishan Road, Hefei 230032, Anhui, China
outbreak, with more than 396,000 confirmed cases as of May 30. From May 2 to May 30, more than 8000 new cases were confirmed daily (https://www.worldometers.info/ coronavirus/country/Russia). It is also posing a challenge to the prevention and control of the second wave of the epidemic in China, bordering with Russia. Therefore, the construction of a reasonable prediction model in Russia contributes to prevent and control the spread of COVID-19. Moreover, it can provide a methodological reference for the prediction of infectious diseases in the future. In recent studies, the prediction models of COVID-19 are mainly divided into two cate
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