Analysis and Modeling of Road Crash Trends in Palestine
- PDF / 1,196,969 Bytes
- 13 Pages / 595.276 x 790.866 pts Page_size
- 93 Downloads / 162 Views
RESEARCH ARTICLE-CIVIL ENGINEERING
Analysis and Modeling of Road Crash Trends in Palestine Fady M. A. Hassouna1 · Sameer Abu‑Eisheh1 · Khaled Al‑Sahili1 Received: 16 December 2019 / Accepted: 21 June 2020 © King Fahd University of Petroleum & Minerals 2020
Abstract This paper presents an analysis of road traffic crashes in Palestine. Over the period of the past 5 decades, there have been uncommon and sever changes in the annual number of road traffic crashes. Such changes can be contributed to varying socioeconomic and political changes. Relevant data have been collected despite the difficulties in obtaining such data from different authorities for various time stages. After examining the collected data, a time series model is developed considering ARIMA methodologies to come up with a model that explains the changes in road traffic crashes during the period since the establishment of the Palestinian National Authority in 1994. Proper model verification is done for the developed model and shows a limited difference of 6.1% between the observed and the forecasted traffic crashes for 2017. According to the developed model, a generally increasing trend is observed, which is expected to continue in the future, and consequently, there will be a vital need to improve traffic safety conditions and develop a national traffic safety program in Palestine. Keywords Traffic safety · Road crashes forecasting · Time series analysis · ARIMA · Palestine
1 Introduction The growing trend in the number of road crashes is a uni‑ versal phenomenon, especially in developing countries. The road crashes resulting deaths and injuries are the target of policies and strategies aiming to reduce the number and severity of such crashes. The WHO (2018) showed that the number of road traf‑ fic deaths continues to climb worldwide, reaching 1.35 million in 2016. However, the rate of deaths relative to the world’s population has been stabilized in the recent years and remained almost constant at about 18.2 deaths per 100,000 population. On the other hand, the rate of deaths relative to the world’s motor vehicles over the past 2 decades has declined, reaching approximately 64 deaths for every 100,000 vehicles in 2016. Despite this, and at the prevail‑ ing rate of deaths per 100,000 population, the Sustainable * Fady M. A. Hassouna [email protected] Sameer Abu‑Eisheh [email protected] Khaled Al‑Sahili [email protected] 1
Development Goals (SDG) target 3.6 aiming for the reduc‑ tion in global road traffic deaths and injuries by 50 percent by 2020 [1] will not be met. The most recent available statistics on road fatalities showed that in 2016, the regions of the developing countries had the highest rates of deaths per 100,000 population. For example, such rates reached a maximum of 26.6 in Africa, 20.7 in southeast Asia, and 18.0 in East Mediterranean, while in developed countries, as in Europe, the rate reached a minimum of only 9.3 [2]. For Palestine, the WHO showed that the rate of fatalities per 100,000 population reached only 5.3 in 2016 [
Data Loading...