Analysis of the response of glaciers to climate change based on the glacial dynamics model
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ORIGINAL ARTICLE
Analysis of the response of glaciers to climate change based on the glacial dynamics model Zhen Wu1 · Wen Hui Zhang2 · Yin Shi Liu3 · Dong Ren1 · Jie Zhao Xun1 · Jian Xue Bai1 Received: 28 May 2019 / Accepted: 11 September 2020 © Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature 2020
Abstract Changes in velocity and temperature of ice are the internal driving factors accelerating glacial regression under the condition of climatic warming. To evaluate glacial response to climate from the perspective of the internal driving forces of glaciers, we used a two-dimensional force balance and energy balance model to simulate the ice velocity and temperature of the No. 8 glacier (H8) in Tianshan Mountains, China. We analyzed the influence of dynamic characteristics caused by climatic warming on glacial changes. The simulation results of ice velocity showed: when the atmospheric temperature changed by 2 °C, the maximum velocity increased from 9 to 20 ma−1, and the total average ice velocity increased from − 9.2 to − 6.9 °C. Apparently, climatic warming could lead to an increase in ice flux. In addition, to analyze the effect of velocity increment on glacial changes, we set the difference mass balance to simulate the glacier change in the future. And the results showed that climatic warming would increase the glacial area in terminus in a short period of time and weaken the ice reserves at upstream. Under the condition of continuous climatic warming, it would accelerate the loss of glacial area and ice reserves. Keywords Dynamic model · Ice flow velocity · Ice temperature · Ice viscosity
Introduction Glaciers are considered to be both products and indicators of climatic change (Aizen et al. 2007; Braithwaite and Raper 2010; Ding et al. 2006; Donghui et al. 2007; Liu et al. 1999). Global warming since the Little Ice Age has greatly reduced glacial coverage around the world (Cogley 2011; Fischer et al. 2011; Griggs and Bamber 2011; Huang et al. 2011) and has increased the equilibrium line height of many glaciers (Rabatel et al. 2013). In particular, the ablation of polar and * Zhen Wu [email protected] * Wen Hui Zhang [email protected] 1
Lanzhou Geophysical National Field Scientific Observation and Research Station, Earthquake Administration, Earthquake Administration of Gansu Province, Lanzhou 730000, China
2
State Key Laboratory Breeding Base of Desertification and Aeolian Sand Disaster Combating, Gansu Desert Control Research Institute, Lanzhou 730070, China
3
The Institute of International Rivers and Eco‑Security, Yunnan University, Kunming 650091, China
mountain glaciers is considered to be a main cause of sealevel rise (Aizen et al. 2006; Griggs and Bamber 2011). It is important to understand glacial responses to climatic change to evaluate the potential effects of regional climatic change. In recent years, a large number of studies have involved glacial changes in the Tianshan Mountains in different periods of time (Aizen et al. 2006; Wu et al. 2013a; Xu et al. 2011; Yi. et al
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