Annotated Readings in the History of Statistics
Interest in the his tory of statistics has grown substantially in recent years and the subject is now covered by a number of excellent books. S. M. Stigler's The History of Statistics (19S6) gives an overview up to 1900 while Anders Hald's two encyclopedi
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Frontispiece: A 3-D Mathematica plot ofthe probability/likelihood diagram for a binomial parameter in Thiele (1889). For every value of the binomial parameter p the binomiaI distribution is plotted, the values at non-integral values of m, the number of successes, being found by interpolation (see ourdiscussion ofThiele's article). In the orthogonal direction the curves are therefore the likelihood functions for p for each m. Note that this diagram, unlike Thiele's, does not extend into the regions m < 0 and m > 10.
H.A. David A.W.F. Edwards
Annotated Readings in the History of Statistics
Springer
H.A. David Statistical Laboratory and Dep artm ent of Statistics Iowa State University 102 Snedecor Hall Ame s, IA 50011-1 210 USA [email protected]
A.w.F. Edwards Gonville and Caius College Cambridge CB2 1TA
UK
[email protected]
With 3 illustrations.
Library of Congress Cataloglng-in-Publication Data David, HA (Herbert Aron), 1925Annotated readings in the history of statistics / H.A. David, A. W.F. Edwards. p. cm. - (Springer series in statistics) Includes bibliographical references and index. I. Mathematical statistics- History. 1935- 1I. Title. III. Series. QA276.15 .D39 5 I9.5'09-{jc2 I
I. Edwards, A.W.F. (Anthony William Fairbank),
200 1
00-041977
Printed on acid-free paper. ISBN 978-1-4419-3174-0 ISBN 978-1-4757-3500-0 (eBook) DOI 10.1007/978-1-4757-3500-0
© 2001 Springer Science+Business Media New York Originally published by Springer-Verlag New York, Inc in 2001. Softcover reprint of the hardcover Ist edition 200 I. All rights rescrved. This work may not be translated or copied in whole or in part without the writtcn permission of thc publishcr Springer Sciencc+Business Media, LLC, except for brief excerpts in connection with reviews or scholarly analysis. Use in connection with any form of information storage and retrieval, electronic adaptation, computer software, or by similar or dissimilar methodology now known or hereafter developed is forbidden. The use of general descriptive names, trade names, trademarks, etc., in this publication, even if the former are not especially identified, is not to be taken as a sign that such names, as understood by the Trade Marks and Merchandise Act, may accordingly be used freely by anyone. Production managed by Michael Koy; manufacturing supervised by Erica Bresler. Typeset by Archetype Publishing, Inc., Monticello, IL.
9 8 7 6 5 432 I SPIN 10725505
Dedicated to Anders Hald Professor Emeritus of Statistics University of Copenhagen, Denmark Authorof A History of Probability and Statistics and Their Applications Before 1750 and A History of Mathematical Statistics from 1750 to 1930
Contents Prefaee Sourees and Aeknowledgments General Note on the Translations
ix xiii xv
The Introduetion of the Coneept of Expectation: Comments on Pascal (1654) .......................................... 1 The First Formal Test of Signifieanee: Comments on Arbuthnott (1710) ...................................... 7 Coincidenees and the Meth
