Application of Bayesian Networks for Geotechnical Risk Analysis: Case Study in Algeria
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ORIGINAL PAPER
Application of Bayesian Networks for Geotechnical Risk Analysis: Case Study in Algeria Anis Lakermi
. Amine Mohammed Allal
Received: 1 April 2020 / Accepted: 17 August 2020 Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2020
Abstract The management of geotechnical risks in construction projects is becoming increasingly indispensable due to the growing complexity of civil engineering works. In addition, the random nature of soils forces practitioners to use tools that deal with the concepts of chance and probability. Bayesian networks are considered as effective tools for addressing issues related to the uncertainty and reliability of systems. The structure of this type of network allows great flexibility of use, and this is the reason why a large number of applications have emerged in recent years. However, the complexity of such networks limits their use in the professional field. The purpose of this article is to design a Bayesian network that could be exploited by all project stakeholders to better manage geotechnical risks. This method could be used in the concrete case of the highway viaduct project of the penetration link from the town of Ghazaouet to the East–West Highway in Algeria. This is expected to provide an effective decision support tool that will certainly allow for a better management of the major risks associated with construction. The results
A. Lakermi (&) A. M. Allal Department of Civil Engineering, Faculty of Technology, Laboratory Water and Work in Their Environment (EOLE), University of Tlemcen, BP 230, 13000 Chetouane, Tlemcen, Algeria e-mail: [email protected] A. M. Allal e-mail: [email protected]
obtained during our study allow us to visualize the most likely scenarios for the occurrence of major risks and thus to be able to intervene in due time. Keywords Risk management Bayesian networks Geotech Infrastructure Viaduct
1 Introduction The geotechnical risks associated with construction have deep and varied causes and are, for the most part, difficult to apprehend a posteriori. They are often tainted with uncertainties which are mainly due to the increasing complexity of the structures and the partial, and sometimes total, ignorance of the subsoil. In general, risks materialize in the construction phase, and it is only then that unexpected or neglected factors appear and usually lead to disasters causing significant material and human damage. In addition, a construction project in its environment involves risks that are progressively evolving. Therefore, the geotechnical hazards must be constantly evaluated and modelled throughout the entire project (Ca´rdenas et al. 2012). Considering the difficulties encountered in construction project management, one may say that most of the existing conventional methods (such as FMECA, Bow tie, PRA, etc.) do not provide a reliable tool that helps to make an appropriate decision on
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Geotech Geol Eng
geotechnical risk prevention. In addition, the current state of research suggests
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