ArielRad: the Ariel radiometric model

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ArielRad: the Ariel radiometric model Lorenzo V. Mugnai1 · Enzo Pascale1 · Billy Edwards2 · Andreas Papageorgiou3 · Subhajit Sarkar3 Received: 24 January 2020 / Accepted: 16 September 2020 / Published online: 13 October 2020 © The Author(s) 2020

Abstract ArielRad, the Ariel radiometric model, is a simulator developed to address the challenges in optimising the space mission science payload and to demonstrate its compliance with the performance requirements. Ariel, the Atmospheric RemoteSensing Infrared Exoplanet Large-survey, has been selected by ESA as the M4 mission in the Cosmic Vision programme and, during its 4 years primary operation, will provide the first unbiased spectroscopic survey of a large and diverse sample of transiting exoplanet atmospheres. To allow for an accurate study of the mission, ArielRad uses a physically motivated noise model to estimate contributions arising from stationary processes, and includes margins for correlated and time-dependent noise sources. We show that the measurement uncertainties are dominated by the photon statistic, and that an observing programme with about 1000 exoplanetary targets can be completed during the primary mission lifetime. Keywords Ariel · Exoplanet · Simulated science

1 Introduction In the past 20 years more than 4000 exoplanets have been detected using space and ground based surveys, and many more are expected to be discovered in the coming years thanks to space missions such as TESS [1], CHEOPS [2], PLATO [3] and GAIA This work has been supported by ASI grant n. 2018.22.HH.O.  Lorenzo V. Mugnai

[email protected] 1

Dipartimento di Fisica, La Sapienza Universit`a di Roma, Piazzale Aldo Moro 2, 00185, Roma, Italy

2

Department of Physics and Astronomy, University College London, Gower Street, London, WC1E 6BT, UK

3

School of Physics and Astronomy, Cardiff University, Queens Buildings, The Parade, Cardiff, CF24 3AA, UK

304

Experimental Astronomy (2020) 50:303–328

[4], and to ground instrumentation such as HARPS [5], HATnet [6], WASP [7], KELT [8], OGLE [9], NGTS [10] and many others. Planets have been found to be ubiquitous in our Galaxy, have been detected around almost every type of star and [11] infer that on average every star in our Galaxy hosts one planetary companion. The exoplanets detected thus-far show a diversity in their masses, sizes, orbits, and, presumably, physical and chemical conditions unseen among the planets in our own Solar System. However, the essential nature of these exoplanets remains elusive. We have little idea whether the planet chemistry is linked to the formation environment or whether the type of host star drives the physics and chemistry of the planet’s birth, and evolution [12]. Atmospheric spectroscopy holds the key to unlock the mysteries of the chemical and physical conditions of these alien worlds as well as their formation and evolutionary histories. Multi-band photometry and spectroscopy of transiting exoplanets [13] is currently one of the most effective observational techniques for revealing the c