Assessing the impact of climate change on sugarcane and adaptation actions in Pakistan
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RESEARCH ARTICLE - ATMOSPHERIC & SPACE SCIENCES
Assessing the impact of climate change on sugarcane and adaptation actions in Pakistan Nageen Farooq1,2 · Shabbir H. Gheewala1,2 Received: 21 November 2019 / Accepted: 18 June 2020 © Institute of Geophysics, Polish Academy of Sciences & Polish Academy of Sciences 2020
Abstract Climate change is a challenging global issue for the sustainable production of various crops around the world as change in climatic patterns can create a stressful environment for plant growth. This study assesses the impact of climate change on future water demand and sugarcane yield in Pakistan for the baseline (1981–2005) and future timescales (2020s, 2050s and 2080s). For evaluating the crop water requirement and yield under future climate, CROPWAT 8.0 and AquaCrop models were used, respectively. For the estimation of future climate, three different Regional Climatic Models were applied under two projection scenarios i.e. RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5. Maximum temperature, precipitation and minimum temperature displayed an increasing trend under the projected future climatic conditions. The results revealed a growth in the crop water requirement with a subsequent escalating irrigation demand caused due to rise in projected temperature; this is because the projected increase in precipitation under forecasted weather conditions cannot compensate for the increased evaporative demand. Moreover, the results showed a general increasing trend of sugarcane yield under projected climate. By delaying the crop calendar, an overall decrease in crop water requirement in the range of 10.7–12.6% and increase in the yield in the range of 0.37–6.48 tha−1 can be observed under both climate change scenarios. Moreover, 90% of control irrigation level proved beneficial in terms of saving around 10% irrigation water with acceptable yield reduction. The outcomes of the study are supportive for growers to gain more yield using less amount of water and to adapt to changing climate. The results are also helpful for policy makers to develop adaptation strategies to improve sugarcane productivity and to address water stress in Pakistan. Keywords Water conservation · Impact assessment · Crop modeling · Sugarcane · Adaptation measures · Crop calendar
Introduction In the twenty-first century, the threat to global food security due to changing climate is considered as a serious challenge (Kang et al. 2009; Najafi et al. 2018). The persistent increase Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (https://doi.org/10.1007/s11600-020-00463-8) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users. * Shabbir H. Gheewala [email protected] 1
The Joint Graduate School of Energy and Environment, King Mongkut’s University of Technology Thonburi, 126 Prachauthit Rd., Bangmod, Tungkru, Bangkok 10140, Thailand
Center of Excellence On Energy Technology and Environment, PERDO, Ministry of Higher Education, Science, Research and Innovation, Bangkok, Thailand
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