Assessing the Vulnerability of Military Installations in the Coterminous United States to Potential Biome Shifts Resulti
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Assessing the Vulnerability of Military Installations in the Coterminous United States to Potential Biome Shifts Resulting from Rapid Climate Change Richard H. Odom1 W. Mark Ford2 ●
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Received: 18 February 2020 / Accepted: 2 July 2020 © This is a U.S. Government work and not under copyright protection in the U.S.; foreign copyright protection may apply 2020
Abstract Climate-change impacts to Department of Defense (DoD) installations will challenge military mission and natural resource stewardship efforts by increasing vulnerability to flooding, drought, altered fire regimes, and invasive species. We developed biome classifications based on current climate for the coterminous United States using the Holdridge Life Zone system to assess potential change on DoD lands. We validated classifications using comparisons to existing ecoregional classifications, the distribution of major forest types, and tree species in eastern North America. We projected future life zones for mid- and latecentury time periods under three greenhouse gas emission scenarios (low—B1, moderate—A1B, and high—A2) using an ensemble of global climate models. To assess installation vulnerability (n = 529), we analyzed biome shifts using spatial cluster analysis to characterize interregional variation, and identified representative installations for subsequent landscape-level analyses. Although mean annual temperatures are expected to increase, installations located in the Northeast, Lake States, and western Great Plains are likely to experience the largest proportional increases in temperature. Accordingly, forest and grassland communities at these installations managed to support a wide range of training, and environmental objectives may be adversely affected by altered disturbance regimes, heat, and moisture stress. However, precipitation is projected to increase in the Northeast and Lake States mitigating some effects of increased temperatures on biological communities. Given the uncertain response to climate change in different ecoregions, additional environmental and stewardship attributes are needed within a decision-support framework to understand vulnerabilities and provide appropriate responses. Keywords Climate change Forests Holdridge life zones Military installations North America ●
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Introduction Scientific evidence continues to mount that the recent period of climatic warming is exceptional when compared with temperature fluctuations over the past 150 years, especially at higher latitudes (IPCC 2014). Arctic sea ice appears to be shrinking at an unprecedented rate, and mean global sea levels continue to rise, trends linked to the continued
* W. Mark Ford [email protected] 1
Geospatial and Environmental Analysis Program, Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University, Blacksburg, VA 24061, USA
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U.S. Geological Survey, Virginia Cooperative Fish and Wildlife Research Unit, Blacksburg, VA 24061, USA
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increase in carbon dioxide (CO2) and other greenhouse gases in the Earth’s atmosphere (Hinzman et al.
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