Assessment of climate change and vulnerability in Indian state of Telangana for better agricultural planning
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ORIGINAL PAPER
Assessment of climate change and vulnerability in Indian state of Telangana for better agricultural planning M. D. M. Kadiyala 1 & Sridhar Gummadi 2 & Mohammad A. Irshad 3 & Ramaraj Palanisamy 3 & Murali Krishna Gumma 3 & Anthony Whitbread 3 Received: 3 November 2019 / Accepted: 4 October 2020 # Springer-Verlag GmbH Austria, part of Springer Nature 2020
Abstract Climate variability and change pose ever-growing challenges in the semiarid tropics, where majority of the population depend on climate-dependent activities such as agriculture. This has rendered these countries more vulnerable to climate change–induced variability. In spite of the uncertainties about anticipated magnitude of climate change on regional scale, an assessment of the possible changes in key climatic elements to identify most vulnerable locations becomes important for formulating adaptation strategies. This study compiles the existing knowledge about observed climate and projections of future change in Telangana state of India. The agriculture in this semiarid state has to adapt to changes in mean climate variables to increased variability with greater risk of extreme weather events, such as prolonged dry spells. Based on climatic vulnerability assessment, we found that the number of vulnerable mandals (currently 28%) will be increased to 45% during early century and to 59% by mid-century. As per the climate exposure index scores, Jogulamba-Gadwal district was found to be most sensitive. Overall, vulnerability index scores indicated that Adilabad, Nagarkurnool, Nalgonda, Peddapalli, Suryapet, Wanaparthy, and Yadadri are extremely vulnerable districts in the state. The ranking of vulnerable mandals in each district envisages the need for a holistic approach for each mandal or a group of mandals to reduce their sensitivity though implementation of site-specific adaptation strategies to minimize climate-related shocks not only in agriculture but also in other sectors. Keywords Climate change . Vulnerability . Agriculture and adaptation
1 Introduction Managing climate-related risks is a major concern in the context of climate change in semiarid tropics. Identification of proper location-specific adaptation strategies and targeted agricultural investments backed up by robust policies are needed for communities whose livelihoods are at risk due to climaterelated shifts (Porter et al. 2014; Kelley et al. 2015; Wiebe et al. 2015). As the frequency and type of extreme events such as cyclones, floods, and droughts are expected to rise (Cruz et al. 2007; Meehl et al. 2007), the primary challenge for * M. D. M. Kadiyala [email protected] 1
Acharya NG Ranga Agricultural University, Guntur, India
2
International Rice Research institute, Hà Nội, Vietnam
3
International Crops Research Institute for the Semi-Arid Tropics (ICRISAT), Patancheru, Andhra Pradesh 502 324, India
decision-makers is to identify most vulnerable regions and helping rural communities to earn a living and achieve food security. These location-specific climate-relate
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