Basic Concepts of Probability and Statistics in the Law
This book sets out basic statistical tools as they have been applied in actual legal disputes. Examples range over diverse fields of law, such as identification evidence, mass torts, securities law, environmental regulation, and capital punishment, among
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Michael O. Finkelstein
Basic Concepts of Probability and Statistics in the Law
123
Michael O. Finkelstein 25 East 86 St., Apt. 13C New York NY 10028-0553 USA [email protected]
ISBN 978-0-387-87500-2 DOI 10.1007/b105519
e-ISBN 978-0-387-87501-9
Library of Congress Control Number: 2008940587 c Springer Science+Business Media, LLC 2009 All rights reserved. This work may not be translated or copied in whole or in part without the written permission of the publisher (Springer Science+Business Media, LLC, 233 Spring Street, New York, NY 10013, USA), except for brief excerpts in connection with reviews or scholarly analysis. Use in connection with any form of information storage and retrieval, electronic adaptation, computer software, or by similar or dissimilar methodology now known or hereafter developed is forbidden. The use in this publication of trade names, trademarks, service marks, and similar terms, even if they are not identified as such, is not to be taken as an expression of opinion as to whether or not they are subject to proprietary rights. Printed on acid-free paper springer.com
Dedicated To My Wife, Vivian
Preface
When as a practicing lawyer I published my first article on statistical evidence in 1966, the editors of the Harvard Law Review told me that a mathematical equation had never before appeared in the review.1 This hardly seems possible - but if they meant a serious mathematical equation, perhaps they were right. Today all that has changed in legal academia. Whole journals are devoted to scientific methods in law or empirical studies of legal institutions. Much of this work involves statistics. Columbia Law School, where I teach, has a professor of law and epidemiology and other law schools have similar “law and” professorships. Many offer courses on statistics (I teach one) or, more broadly, on law and social science. The same is true of practice. Where there are data to parse in a litigation, statisticians and other experts using statistical tools now frequently testify. And judges must understand them. In 1993, in its landmark Daubert decision, the Supreme Court commanded federal judges to penetrate scientific evidence and find it “reliable” before allowing it in evidence.2 It is emblematic of the rise of statistics in the law that the evidence at issue in that much-cited case included a series of epidemiological studies. The Supreme Court’s new requirement made the Federal Judicial Center’s Reference Manual on Scientific Evidence, which appeared at about the same time, a best seller. It has several important chapters on statistics. Before all this began, to meet the need for a textbook, Professor Bruce Levin and I wrote Statistics for Lawyers, which was first published in 1990. A second edition appeared in 2000. I use the book in my course, but law students who had not previously been exposed to statistical learning frequently complained that it was too hard. This led me to write a much shorter and mathematically less challenging version the present book. I have inflicted
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