Challenges at the Bank for International Settlements An Economist's

The intellectual challenges facing central bankers are reflected in this monograph. The author worked as an economist in the Monetary and Economic Department of the Bank for International Settlements (BIS), but also as an international mediator, in the Se

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Elmar B. Koch

Challenges at the Bank for International Settlements An Economist´s (Re)View

With 19 Figures and 56 Tables

123

Dr. Elmar B. Koch, LLD, MBA, PhD Bank for International Settlements 4002 Basel Switzerland [email protected]

Library of Congress Control Number: 2007932729

ISBN 978-3-540-72789-7 Springer Berlin Heidelberg New York This work is subject to copyright. All rights are reserved, whether the whole or part of the material is concerned, specifically the rights of translation, reprinting, reuse of illustrations, recitation, broadcasting, reproduction on microfilm or in any other way, and storage in data banks. Duplication of this publication or parts thereof is permitted only under the provisions of the German Copyright Law of September 9, 1965, in its current version, and permission for use must always be obtained from Springer. Violations are liable to prosecution under the German Copyright Law. Springer is a part of Springer Science+Business Media springer.com © Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2007 The use of general descriptive names, registered names, trademarks, etc. in this publication does not imply, even in the absence of a specific statement, that such names are exempt from the relevant protective laws and regulations and therefore free for general use. Production: LE-TEX Jelonek, Schmidt & V¨ ockler GbR, Leipzig Cover-design: WMX Design GmbH, Heidelberg SPIN 12069477

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Foreword

For a number of reasons I am pleased that Elmar has asked me to write a foreword to this volume, which assembles together a number of pieces that he wrote over the course of the decade between 1997 and 2007. The first reason is that it gives me the opportunity to thank him for the work he has carried out so conscientiously and ably in his role as an economist working for the BIS. I would, however, be remiss if I did not also thank him for his earlier efforts, contributing in particular to the statistical output of the MED, and also the broader contribution he made as president of the Sports Club from 2004 to 2007. A second reason for being pleased is that the research contained in this volume was drawn from the period when I was chief of the MED and very much involved in discussions of the important issues to which these papers are directed. Time goes fast when one is busy, and it is all too easy to forget what was yesterday’s central question. This volume constitutes a kind of reintroduction to old friends, and that is always a pleasure. The papers in this volume are grouped into four time periods, during each of which Elmar had been given different responsibilities. The interesting point is that, taken together, they imply an interest in essentially all the important topics of interest to the BIS. The earliest years, 1997 to 2000, when his attention was focused on the economic prospects of central and eastern Europe, as well as Africa and India, provided insights into matters pertaining to both monetary and financial stability. These are key issues fo