Climate Change and Policy The Calculability of Climate Change and th
The debate on how mankind should respond to climate change is diverse, as the appropriate strategy depends on global as well as local circumstances.As scientists are denied the possibility of conducting experiments with the real climate, only climate mode
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2014 AR5
2007 AR4 2001 TAR 2000 Earth System Models (ESMs) Climate Change Science and Policy
1995 SAR 1990 FAR
1979 Charney Report
Climate Research
1970 General Circulation Atmosphere Ocean Models (AOGCMs)
1960 General Circulation Atmosphere Models(GCMs) Meteorology
1950 Barotropic Models
Gabriele Gramelsberger
l
Johann Feichter
Editors
Climate Change and Policy The Calculability of Climate Change and the Challenge of Uncertainty
Editors Dr. Gabriele Gramelsberger FU Berlin Inst. Philosophie Habelschwerdter Allee 30 14195 Berlin Berlin Germany [email protected]
Dr. Johann Feichter MPI fu¨r Meteorologie The Atmosphere in the Earth System Bundesstr. 55 20146 Hamburg Germany [email protected]
ISBN 978-3-642-17699-9 e-ISBN 978-3-642-17700-2 DOI 10.1007/978-3-642-17700-2 Springer Heidelberg Dordrecht London New York Library of Congress Control Number: 2011923339 # Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2011 This work is subject to copyright. All rights are reserved, whether the whole or part of the material is concerned, specifically the rights of translation, reprinting, reuse of illustrations, recitation, broadcasting, reproduction on microfilm or in any other way, and storage in data banks. Duplication of this publication or parts thereof is permitted only under the provisions of the German Copyright Law of September 9, 1965, in its current version, and permission for use must always be obtained from Springer. Violations are liable to prosecution under the German Copyright Law. The use of general descriptive names, registered names, trademarks, etc. in this publication does not imply, even in the absence of a specific statement, that such names are exempt from the relevant protective laws and regulations and therefore free for general use. Cover design: deblik Printed on acid-free paper Springer is part of Springer Science+Business Media (www.springer.com)
Foreword
The uncertainty in projecting climate effects is a contentious issue in science and society. On the one hand, decision-makers require certainty about the future consequences of today’s behaviour. On the other hand the complexity of the climate system, of human behaviour, and global interactions, combine to make such certainty impossible. Although it has turned out that the world is not exactly predictable, advanced strategies of calculability and measurement have been developed that enable to establish ‘rational prognosis’. Thus forecasting future scenarios and dealing with uncertainty has become everyday business for meteorologists ever since automatic computing machines crossed the threshold of a million operations per second in the 1970s. Since then rational prognosis based on scientific principles has become an essential part of decision-making both in economics and in politics–challenged by the problem of uncertainty. New methods and advanced strategies fuel hopes of managing uncertainty as economics, politics, and society increasingly bank upon rational prognoses, especially where the impact of climate change is concerned.
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