Climate change effects on turtles of the genus Kinosternon (Testudines: Kinosternidae): an assessment of habitat suitabi
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PRIMARY RESEARCH PAPER
Climate change effects on turtles of the genus Kinosternon (Testudines: Kinosternidae): an assessment of habitat suitability and climate niche conservatism ´ ngeles . Christian Berriozabal-Islas . Aurelio Ramı´rez-Bautista . Ferdinand Torres-A . . Joa˜o Fabrı´cio Mota Rodrigues Rodrigo Macip-Rı´os Pablo Octavio-Aguilar
Received: 5 November 2019 / Revised: 29 August 2020 / Accepted: 30 August 2020 Ó Springer Nature Switzerland AG 2020
Abstract The Chelonian lineage has been exposed to several climate change events along its evolutionary history, but the rapid contemporary change in climate patterns has the potential to erode turtle populations. This study focuses on (1) evaluating the climatically suitable area available for 15 species of mud turtles of the genus Kinosternon, and on (2) assessing whether or not these species retain their ancestral climate niche. Occurrence data was collected for these species and, using the Maxent algorithm and WorldClim bioclimatic variables, suitable present and future climatic niche areas were modeled. In addition, we also carried out climatic niche similarity analyses between pairs of species to evaluate whether these
conserve their climatic niche. Our models suggest that most species of Kinosternon will lose a high proportion of their suitable habitat in the future. Most mud turtle species seem to conserve their climatic niche, suggesting the prevalence of niche conservatism in the group. Our results indicate that several mud turtle species could be at severe risk of disappearing over the next few decades due to the loss of climatically suitable areas and of the conservation of their climatic niches. Keywords Lagoons Temperature Maxent Microendemic species American continent
Handling editor: Lee B. Kats C. Berriozabal-Islas Programa Educativo de Ingenierı´a en Biotecnologı´a, Universidad Polite´cnica de Quintana Roo, Av. Arco Bicentenario M 11, Lote 1119-33, Sm 255, 77500 Cancu´n, Quintana Roo, Mexico ´ ngeles A. Ramı´rez-Bautista (&) F. Torres-A P. Octavio-Aguilar Centro de Investigaciones Biolo´gicas, Instituto de Ciencias Ba´sicas e Ingenierı´a, Universidad Auto´noma del Estado de Hidalgo, Pachuca, Hidalgo, Mexico e-mail: [email protected]
R. Macip-Rı´os Escuela Nacional de Estudios Superiores, Unidad Morelia, Universidad Nacional Auto´noma de Me´xico, Morelia, Michoaca´n, Mexico R. Macip-Rı´os Laboratorio Nacional de Sı´ntesis Ecolo´gica y Conservacio´n de Recursos Gene´ticos, Escuela Nacional de Estudios Superiores Unidad Morelia, Universidad Nacional Auto´noma de Me´xico, Morelia, Michoaca´n, Mexico
J. F. Mota Rodrigues Departamento de Ecologia, Universidade Federal de Goia´s, Campus Samambaia 14, CP 131, Goiaˆnia, GO 74001-970, Brazil
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Hydrobiologia
Introduction The current global climate change is a phenomenon caused largely by the anthropogenic activities, which today is wreaking a considerable effect on the populations of many species, their life cycles, and other bio
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