Comparison of spatiotemporal characteristics of the COVID-19 and SARS outbreaks in mainland China
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RESEARCH ARTICLE
Open Access
Comparison of spatiotemporal characteristics of the COVID-19 and SARS outbreaks in mainland China Xi Zhang1†, Huaxiang Rao2†, Yuwan Wu3, Yubei Huang4 and Hongji Dai4*
Abstract Background: Both coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) and severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) are caused by coronaviruses and have infected people in China and worldwide. We aimed to investigate whether COVID-19 and SARS exhibited similar spatial and temporal features at provincial level in mainland China. Methods: The number of people infected by COVID-19 and SARS were extracted from daily briefings on newly confirmed cases during the epidemics, as of Mar. 4, 2020 and Aug. 3, 2003, respectively. We depicted spatiotemporal patterns of the COVID-19 and SARS epidemics using spatial statistics such as Moran’s I and the local indicators of spatial association (LISA). Results: Compared to SARS, COVID-19 had a higher overall incidence. We identified 3 clusters (predominantly located in south-central China; the highest RR = 135.08, 95% CI: 128.36–142.08) for COVID-19 and 4 clusters (mainly in Northern China; the highest RR = 423.51, 95% CI: 240.96–722.32) for SARS. Fewer secondary clusters were identified after the “Wuhan lockdown”. The LISA cluster map detected a significantly high-low (Hubei) and low-high spatial clustering (Anhui, Hunan, and Jiangxi, in Central China) for COVID-19. Two significant high-high (Beijing and Tianjin) and low-high (Hebei) clusters were detected for SARS. Conclusions: COVID-19 and SARS outbreaks exhibited distinct spatiotemporal clustering patterns at the provincial levels in mainland China, which may be attributable to changes in social and demographic factors, local government containment strategies or differences in transmission mechanisms. Keywords: Coronavirus, COVID-19, SARS, Epidemic, Spatial clustering
Background Since the World Health Organization (WHO) declared the outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) a Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) on January 30, 2019, this emerging infectious disease has spread rapidly in China and to other * Correspondence: [email protected] † Xi Zhang and Huaxiang Rao contributed equally to this work. 4 Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Key Laboratory of Molecular Cancer Epidemiology of Tianjin, Tianjin Medical University Cancer Institute and Hospital, Tianjin Medical University, HuanHuXi Rd., HeXi Dist, Tianjin 300060, People’s Republic of China Full list of author information is available at the end of the article
countries beyond China. As of March 4, 2020, the total number of confirmed cases of COVID-19 climbed to approximately 80,000, with more than 3000 reported deaths. Approximately 670,000 people had been identified as close contacts of infected patients, and 32,870 people had been under medical observation or quarantine in China [1]. Compared to the severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) outbreak in 2003, which was also caused by a similar coronavirus, COVID-19 has been much more transmi
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