Consecutive dry and wet days over South America and their association with ENSO events, in CMIP5 simulations
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ORIGINAL PAPER
Consecutive dry and wet days over South America and their association with ENSO events, in CMIP5 simulations M. Florencia Iacovone 1,2
&
Vanesa C. Pántano 1,2 & Olga C. Penalba 1,2
Received: 2 January 2020 / Accepted: 10 July 2020 # Springer-Verlag GmbH Austria, part of Springer Nature 2020
Abstract The assessment of ENSO influence on extreme rainfall events over South America will provide useful information to climate services. This research analyzes the performance of eleven global climate models (GCMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) using skill score metrics to simulate two climate extreme rainfall indices: maximum number of consecutive dry days (CDD) and wet days (CWD). Additionally, another objective of this study is to characterize the spatial relationship between different types of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO)–El Niño Modoki Index (EMI) and Oceanic Niño Index (ONI)– and those indices of climate extremes of rainfall. The development of this research is carried out in South America, in the trimester October–December from “historical” experiment for the period 1979–2005. In general terms, the mean fields of CDD and CWD indices tend to be opposite, with main differences in Amazonas, Atacama Desert, and northeast of Brazil. The CDD–EMI and CDD–ONI correlations show a greater signal than CWD in South America. The CDD–EMI correlation is negative; nevertheless, the CDD-El Niño Modoki composite shows positive values in the northeast of Buenos Aires province. It can be concluded that most models are able to reproduce the gridded observed spatial pattern of extreme rainfall indices and their association with ENSO events. The results of this investigation could be a tool for new studies to analyze and compare the “historical” period with future projections in a context of climate change.
1 Introduction Climate extremes have become a focus of study and concern in recent years, due to observed and projected changes that affects society and its economic, productive, and recreational activities. These extreme events characterized by spatial and temporal variabilities, and their impacts, depend on the region and the time of year. This knowledge will provide useful information to climate services focused on seasonal forecast for agriculture planning and tourism sectors and take mitigation
* M. Florencia Iacovone [email protected] Vanesa C. Pántano [email protected] Olga C. Penalba [email protected] 1
Departamento de Ciencias de la Atmósfera y Océanos (FCEyN), Universidad de Buenos Aires, Buenos Aires, Argentina
2
Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas (CONICET), Buenos Aires, Argentina
and adaptation measures in the framework of climate change. For these applications, a comprehensive analysis of climate extremes is demanded at regional and local scale. The Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices (ETCCDI) has the purpose of providing relevant indices for the detection of climate change and encouraging the comparis
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