Contrasting development trajectories for coastal Bangladesh to the end of century
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ORIGINAL ARTICLE
Contrasting development trajectories for coastal Bangladesh to the end of century Attila Nándor Lázár 1
&
Robert James Nicholls 2 & Jim William Hall 3 & Emily Jane Barbour 3,4 & Anisul Haque 5
Received: 22 December 2018 / Accepted: 23 June 2020 # The Author(s) 2020
Abstract Bangladesh is one of the most climate-sensitive countries globally, creating significant challenges for future development. Here we apply an integrated assessment model — Delta Dynamic Integrated Emulator Model (ΔDIEM) — to the south-west coastal zone of Bangladesh to explore the outcomes of four contrasting and plausible development trajectories under different climate and socio-economic scenarios: (1) embankment rehabilitation; (2) build elevation via controlled sedimentation; (3) planned migration (managed retreat) and (4) ‘do nothing’ (unplanned migration and abandonment). Embankment rehabilitation reduces flood risk, but at a high economic cost and enhancing waterlogging. Planned and unplanned migration combined with limited infrastructure management and governance both result in significant abandonment. Building elevation through sedimentation has the potential for increased environmental and economic sustainability but raises equity issues. Poverty and inequality persist across all scenarios, and outmigration from the coastal zone continues, although the magnitude is sensitive to assumptions about sea-level rise, socio-economic development and development trajectory. Integrated assessment tools linking the environment, people and policy choices, such as the ΔDIEM used here, highlight the complex interactions occurring in a dynamic delta environment. Such analysis supports informed management, development and adaptation. Keywords Integrated assessment model . Delta . Policy options . Development trajectories . Human wellbeing . Coastal adaptation
Introduction Deltas are complex systems with strong, dynamic interactions between natural and human processes requiring careful
management and governance (Welch et al. 2017). They face severe multiple pressures, including reduced sediment supply due to upstream dams, subsiding land due to the embankment and/or groundwater withdrawal (Adnan et al. 2019; Syvitski
This article is part of the Topical Collection on Sustainability of socialecological systems Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-020-01681-y) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users. * Attila Nándor Lázár [email protected]
1
Geography and Environmental Science, University of Southampton, University Road Southampton SO17 1BJ UK
2
Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, University of East Anglia, Norwich NR4 7TJ UK
3
Geography and the Environment, University of Oxford, Oxford UK
Emily Jane Barbour [email protected]
4
CSIRO Land and Water, Canberra Australia
Anisul Haque [email protected]
5
Bangladesh University of Engineering and Technology, Dhaka Bangladesh
Robert James Nicholls robert.nicholls
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