Controlling emerging zoonoses at the animal-human interface
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One Health Outlook
RESEARCH
Open Access
Controlling emerging zoonoses at the animal-human interface Riley O. Mummah1,2 , Nicole A. Hoff2, Anne W. Rimoin2 and James O. Lloyd-Smith1,3*
Abstract Background: For many emerging or re-emerging pathogens, cases in humans arise from a mixture of introductions (via zoonotic spillover from animal reservoirs or geographic spillover from endemic regions) and secondary human-to-human transmission. Interventions aiming to reduce incidence of these infections can be focused on preventing spillover or reducing human-to-human transmission, or sometimes both at once, and typically are governed by resource constraints that require policymakers to make choices. Despite increasing emphasis on using mathematical models to inform disease control policies, little attention has been paid to guiding rational disease control at the animal-human interface. Methods: We introduce a modeling framework to analyze the impacts of different disease control policies, focusing on pathogens exhibiting subcritical transmission among humans (i.e. pathogens that cannot establish sustained human-to-human transmission). We quantify the relative effectiveness of measures to reduce spillover (e.g. reducing contact with animal hosts), human-to-human transmission (e.g. case isolation), or both at once (e.g. vaccination), across a range of epidemiological contexts. Results: We provide guidelines for choosing which mode of control to prioritize in different epidemiological scenarios and considering different levels of resource and relative costs. We contextualize our analysis with current zoonotic pathogens and other subcritical pathogens, such as post-elimination measles, and control policies that have been applied. Conclusions: Our work provides a model-based, theoretical foundation to understand and guide policy for subcritical zoonoses, integrating across disciplinary and species boundaries in a manner consistent with One Health principles. Keywords: Subcritical zoonoses, Stuttering zoonoses, Epidemiological control, Emerging infectious diseases, Crossspecies spillover transmission, Human-to-human transmission, Infectious disease dynamics
Background Zoonotic pathogens are a major threat to global health, both through their on-going contributions to disease burden and their potential contributions to the emergence of novel pandemic pathogens [1]. Zoonotic spillover is defined as transmission of a * Correspondence: [email protected] 1 Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, University of California, 610 Charles E Young Dr S, Los Angeles, CA 90095, USA 3 Fogarty International Center, National Institutes of Health, Bethesda, MD 20892, USA Full list of author information is available at the end of the article
pathogen from an animal host to a susceptible human and is the source of diseases from monkeypox to plague to leishmaniasis. Risk of zoonotic spillover is driven by many ecological, epidemiological, and behavioral factors across scales [2–4]. The combination of animal ecology, human behavior,
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