Coupled water transport and heat flux in seasonally frozen soils: uncertainties identification in multi-site calibration
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ORIGINAL ARTICLE
Coupled water transport and heat flux in seasonally frozen soils: uncertainties identification in multi‑site calibration Mousong Wu1,2 · Xiao Tan2,3 · Jingwei Wu2 · Jiesheng Huang2 · Per‑Erik Jansson4 · Wenxin Zhang5 Received: 3 April 2020 / Accepted: 30 October 2020 © Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature 2020
Abstract The modeling of seasonally frozen soils is significant for understanding the hydrological process in cold regions. The water and heat transports of two seasonally frozen sites in northern China were simulated with the process-oriented CoupModel, and a more efficient Monte Carlo based method was employed to identify the uncertainties in multi-site calibration. Results showed that water and heat measured at different sites could be explained by 15 merged parameters including FreezepointFWi ( d1 ), EquilAdjustPsi ( 𝜓eg ), AlbedoKExp ( ka ), RoughLBareSoilMom ( z0M ) etc. with common ranges to some extent −1 ), and SThermalCondCoef ( s ) related and three parameters MinimumCondValue ( kmin,uc ), WindLessExchangeSoil ( ra,max k to soil hydraulic conductivity, surface aerodynamic resistance and snow thermal conductivity respectively were identified to be site-dependent with site-specific ranges. The promotion in performance indices of interest variables indicated that the proposed systematic method had the potential to improve the multi-site simulation of heat and water in frozen soils based on CoupModel. However, the range ratios and posterior distributions of the merged parameters indicated the model structural uncertainty in CoupModel. And the comparison of the simulated variables between two sites demonstrated that the model structure uncertainty originated from the lack of consideration for the detailed processes related to ice cover and freezing point depression induced by soil solute. More detailed information on study sites as well as consideration of more detailed processes in frozen soil water-energy balance will expand the scope of model application in cold regions. Keywords Soil freezing · Thawing · CoupModel · Multi-site calibration · Uncertainty assessment
Mousong Wu and Xiao Tan contributed equally * Xiao Tan [email protected] 1
International Institute for Earth System Science (ESSI), Jiangsu Provincial Key Laboratory of Geographic Information Science and Technology, Key Laboratory for Land Satellite Remote Sensing Applications of Ministry of Natural Resources, School of Geography and Ocean Science, Nanjing University, Nanjing 210023, Jiangsu, China
2
State Key Laboratory of Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering Science, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430072, Hubei, China
3
State Key Laboratory of Hydraulics and Mountain River Engineering, College of Water Resource and Hydropower, Sichuan University, Chengdu 610065, Sichuan, China
4
Department of Sustainable Development, Environmental Science and Engineering, KTH Royal Institute of Technology, 10044 Stockholm, Sweden
5
Department of Physical Geography and Ecosystem Science, Lund Universi
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