Crimea, Global Rivalry, and the Vengeance of History
Gardner examines the causes and consequences of Russia's annexation of Crimea. By analyzing alliance formations and the consequences of other annexations in world history, the book urges an alternative US-NATO-European-Japanese strategy toward both Russia
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Crimea, Global Rivalry, and the Vengeance of History Hall Gardner
crimea, global rivalry, and the vengeance of history Copyright © Hall Gardner, 2015. All rights reserved. First published in 2015 by PALGRAVE MACMILLAN® in the United States—a division of St. Martin’s Press LLC, 175 Fifth Avenue, New York, NY 10010. Where this book is distributed in the UK, Europe and the rest of the world, this is by Palgrave Macmillan, a division of Macmillan Publishers Limited, registered in England, company number 785998, of Houndmills, Basingstoke, Hampshire RG21 6XS. Palgrave Macmillan is the global academic imprint of the above companies and has companies and representatives throughout the world. Palgrave® and Macmillan® are registered trademarks in the United States, the United Kingdom, Europe and other countries.
ISBN 978-1-349-55756-1 ISBN 978-1-137-52817-9 (eBook) DOI 10.1057/9781137528179 Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data is available from the Library of Congress. A catalogue record of the book is available from the British Library. Design by Scribe Inc. First edition: September 2015 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1
Contents Preface General Introduction: The Vengeance of History 1
vii 1
Renewed Cold War? World War II? World War I? Or Nothing of the Kind?
17
2
Genesis of the Russia-Ukraine Conflict
29
3
Soviet Collapse and the Russia-Ukraine Conflict
43
4
Origins of the Russian Backlash
59
5
Uneven Polycentrism and the Global Crisis
81
6
A Cross-Historical Method
99
7
Why Major-Power War Is Still Possible, Though Nott Inevitable!
127
8
Future Pessimistic Scenarios
149
9
Once, and If, the Dust Settles
169
Notes
199
Selected Bibliography
235
Index
239
Preface Crimea, Global Rivalry, and the Vengeance of Historyy picks up on my previous two Palgrave-Macmillan books, Averting Global Warr (2007) and NATO Expansion and US Strategy in Asiaa (2013). Averting Global Warr warned of a potential Georgia-Russia war in addition to the possibility of a Russia-Ukraine conflict. NATO Expansion and US Strategy in Asiaa had proposed the “internationalization” of Russian port of Sevastopol, plus the formation of a regional “peace and development community” for the Black Sea and Caucasus regions involving a system of joint NATO-EU-Russian security guarantees, with the deployment of international peacekeepers. These options were proposed as an alternative to a NATO enlargement to Georgia and Ukraine and in order to prevent the eventual partition of the Black Sea region into pro-NATO and pro-Russian states. These proposals were made precisely in the hope that it might still be possible to avert the burgeoning Russian pan-nationalist threat to retake Crimea in opposition to both NATO and EU enlargement in the midst of Ukrainian bankruptcy and sociopolitical strife. Now, however, the Crimean crisis represents the return of history with a vengeance in that it impacts political-economic and financial relations between Russia, China, the European Union, and much of the world, in addition to interlinking d
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