Cycles in the UK Housing Economy Price and its Relationship with Len
This book uses empirical research to examine fluctuations and periodicities in housing markets in the United Kingdom. Chapters investigate received wisdom on housing market co-determination before exploring an unconventional approach to analysing the inte
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David Gray
Cycles in the UK Housing Economy
David Gray
Cycles in the UK Housing Economy Price and its Relationship with Lenders, Buyers, Consumption and Construction
David Gray Lincoln University Lincoln, UK
ISBN 978-3-319-63347-3 ISBN 978-3-319-63348-0 (eBook) DOI 10.1007/978-3-319-63348-0 Library of Congress Control Number: 2017948263 © The Editor(s) (if applicable) and The Author(s) 2017 This work is subject to copyright. All rights are solely and exclusively licensed by the Publisher, whether the whole or part of the material is concerned, specifically the rights of translation, reprinting, reuse of illustrations, recitation, broadcasting, reproduction on microfilms or in any other physical way, and transmission or information storage and retrieval, electronic adaptation, computer software, or by similar or dissimilar methodology now known or hereafter developed. The use of general descriptive names, registered names, trademarks, service marks, etc. in this publication does not imply, even in the absence of a specific statement, that such names are exempt from the relevant protective laws and regulations and therefore free for general use. The publisher, the authors and the editors are safe to assume that the advice and information in this book are believed to be true and accurate at the date of publication. Neither the publisher nor the authors or the editors give a warranty, express or implied, with respect to the material contained herein or for any errors or omissions that may have been made. The publisher remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations. Cover illustration: © Melisa Hasan Printed on acid-free paper This Palgrave Macmillan imprint is published by Springer Nature The registered company is Springer International Publishing AG The registered company address is: Gewerbestrasse 11, 6330 Cham, Switzerland
Contents
1 Introduction 1 1.1 Housing Economics: The Macro, Micro, and Meso Levels of Analysis 2 1.2 The Scope of the Work 7 1.2.1 What Propositions Are Explored? 9 1.3 Data and Methods of Data Analysis 11 1.4 The Structure of the Work 11 References 14 2 A Consideration of Related Contributions in the Fields of Housing and Consumption 17 2.1 Introduction 17 2.2 House Price Diffusion Between Buyers, Vintages, and Regions 18 2.2.1 UK House Price Ripple Effect 18 2.2.2 Contributions Using Other Methods 21 2.2.3 Revealing House Price Diffusion in Other Countries 22
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vi Contents
2.2.4 Price Interaction Between Housing Markets of Different Quality 24 2.3 How Long Are Economic Cycles? 28 2.3.1 Evidence of Cycles in Property 31 2.3.2 International Cycles 33 2.4 Consumption over a Life Time 34 2.4.1 The Consumption and Housing Nexus 35 2.4.2 Credit Constraints: Constrained Consumption 36 References 37 3 Housing Market Theory 47 3.1 Introduction 47 3.2 Monocentric Urban Model 48 3.3 Interaction of Urban Centres 53 3.4 From Rent to House Prices 57 3.5 Buyers that are Sellers—A Key Source of Volatility 58
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