Democratic Prospects in Iraq: A Comparative Approach
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Democratic Prospects in Iraq: A Comparative Approach Gary A. Stradiotto Department of Political Science, University of California at Davis, One Shields Avenue, Davis, CA 95616, USA. E-mail: [email protected]
While structuralist explanations for regime transition focus on domestic conditions in initiating democracy within the nation-state, I argue that exogenous events such as regime removal through foreign intervention are an important causal variable to democratization. Examining regime transition in Iraq, I use the comparative approach to show that where the United States imposes democracy upon a country, it is relatively successful. To explain this empirical finding, I posit that democratization is strongly influenced by the success of US military intervention and assistance during the transitional phase and positive socioeconomic conditions within the host country during the rebuilding stage. While regime removal through foreign intervention was a necessary condition for democratic transition in Iraq, the sustainability of democracy increases with strong economic growth and development, and controlling for the adverse effects of ‘rentierism’. In this regard, I suggest the prospects of Iraq building and maintaining a competitive regime are cautiously optimistic. International Politics (2006) 43, 574–595. doi:10.1057/palgrave.ip.8800176 Keywords: democratization; economic development; foreign intervention; GDP
Introduction Is it possible to impose democracy upon a country through the use of military force? Numerous scholars express pessimism about the likelihood of Iraq building a viable, democratic regime after Saddam Hussein (Diamond, 2003, 2005; Lawson and Thacker, 2003) In this view, democracy is likely to fail as Iraq does not possess the necessary prerequisites for constructing and maintaining a stable democratic system, and because external factors are secondary to internal factors in creating democracy (Lowenthal, 1991). Internal factors include socioeconomic, political, cultural and historical variables that help mold the forces responsible for the emergence and stabilization of democratic structures. In this study, I challenge the view that domestic conditions within the target state are primary in bringing about democracy, including both structuralist and strategic choice
Gary A. Stradiotto Democratic Prospects in Iraq
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explanations. Instead, I show that while Iraq lacks most of the necessary prerequisites for creating democratic governance, its failure is not a forgone conclusion. The process of democratizing a country can be viewed on a continuum. According to Huntington (1991), democratization involves three steps: (1) the removal of the authoritarian regime; (2) installation of a democratic regime; and (3) the consolidation, or long-term sustainability of the democratic regime (p. 37). In Iraq, where internal prerequisites failed to bring regime change or start the process of democratization, foreign intervention is an important, causal factor contributing to the removal of the authori
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