Developing a New Probabilistic Approach for Risk Analysis, Application in Underground Coal Mining
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TECHNICAL ARTICLE—PEER-REVIEWED
Developing a New Probabilistic Approach for Risk Analysis, Application in Underground Coal Mining Mohammad Javadi . Gholamreza Saeedi . Kourosh Shahriar
Submitted: 16 April 2017 / Published online: 21 August 2017 ASM International 2017
Abstract Underground coal mining is one of the most hazardous activities in all around the word. Therefore, risk analysis has a remarkable role in the coal mining works. In this study, a new probabilistic approach is developed to evaluate the most important hazard of coal mining. For this aim, at first a fuzzy TOPSIS model is applied to rank the risks of the mining. By this way, it is possible to overcome the existing uncertainty of the risk ranking process. Application of the proposed procedure shows that the roof fall is the most important hazard in the Tabas Coal Mine in Iran. Afterward, this study tried to quantify the roof fall risk as the most important hazard in underground coal mining. Due to the related uncertainties associated with every mine, it is very difficult to predict the roof fall. As a result, development of a methodology for evaluation of roof fall risk under uncertainty condition has a key role in safety of underground coal mines. In this paper, a new approach for analyzing the risk of roof fall is presented. For this aim, the major factors influencing the stability of the roof are utilized in a Bayesian network-based model. The proposed method is illustrated with an application in Tabas Coal Mine. The results show that that BN-based model is a capable method for adjusting to uncertainties in the roof fall risk evaluation. Keywords Risk analysis Coal mining Fuzzy TOPSIS Bayesian network Tabas Coal Mine M. Javadi G. Saeedi (&) Mining Engineering Department, Shahid Bahonar University of Kerman, Kerman, Iran e-mail: [email protected] K. Shahriar Department of Mining and Metallurgical Engineering, Amirkabir University of Technology, Tehran, Iran
Introduction Underground coal mining is known as an industry with the high rate of the hazards. The hazards of underground coal mining may have negative effects on workers as damage, inability or death and additionally mining organization as a result of downtime, interruptions in the mining operations and so on [1]. To avoid such problems, managers are obliged to do a risk management plan. Risk management includes a number of approaches such as identification, analysis, evaluation, treatment, monitoring, communication and consultation [2]. Risk evaluation helps the managers to rank the identified hazards and accomplished the proper reaction to them [3]. A broader classification of risk evaluation techniques was proposed by Iannacchione et al. [4]. Going from simple to sophisticated, they are (1) informal, (2) basic formal and (3) advanced formal techniques. Informal techniques contain methods such as stop–look–analyze–manage (SLAM), five-point safety system, take time, take charge. Basic formal risk assessment techniques include approaches like the job safety analysis (JSA), critic
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