Development and internal validation of risk prediction model of metabolic syndrome in oil workers
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RESEARCH ARTICLE
Open Access
Development and internal validation of risk prediction model of metabolic syndrome in oil workers Jie Wang1, Chao Li1, Jing Li1, Sheng Qin1, Chunlei Liu3, Jiaojiao Wang1, Zhe Chen1, Jianhui Wu1,2* and Guoli Wang1,2
Abstract Background: The prevalence of metabolic syndrome continues to rise sharply worldwide, seriously threatening people’s health. The optimal model can be used to identify people at high risk of metabolic syndrome as early as possible, to predict their risk, and to persuade them to change their adverse lifestyle so as to slow down and reduce the incidence of metabolic syndrome. Methods: Design existing circumstances research. A total of 1468 workers from an oil company who participated in occupational health physical examination from April 2017 to October 2018 were included in this study. We established the Logistic regression model, the random forest model and the convolutional neural network model, and compared the prediction performance of the models according to the F1 score, sensitivity, accuracy and other indicators of the three models. Results: The results showed that the accuracy of the three models was 82.49,95.98 and 92.03%, the sensitivity was 87.94,95.52 and 90.59%, the specificity was 74.54, 96.65 and 94.14%, the F1 score was 0.86,0.97 and 0.93, and the area under ROC curve was 0.88,0.96 and 0.92, respectively. The Brier score of the three models was 0.15, 0.08 and 0.12, Observed-expected ratio was 0.83, 0.97 and 1.13, and the Integrated Calibration Index was 0.075,0.073 and 0.074, respectively, and explained how the random forest model was used for individual disease risk score. Conclusions: The study showed that the prediction performance of random forest model is better than other models, and the model has higher application value, which can better predict the risk of metabolic syndrome in oil workers, and provide corresponding theoretical basis for the health management of oil workers. Keywords: Data mining, Oil workers, Metabolic syndrome, Risk prediction
* Correspondence: [email protected] 1 School of Public Health, North China University of Science and Technology, No.21 Bohai Avenue, Caofeidian New Town, Tangshan City, Hebei Province 063210, P.R. China 2 Hebei Province Key Laboratory of Occupational Health and Safety for Coal Industry, North China University of Science and Technology, Tangshan, Hebei, P.R. China Full list of author information is available at the end of the article © The Author(s). 2020 Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article's Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not
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