Do people accurately report droughts? Comparison of instrument-measured and national survey data in Kenya
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Do people accurately report droughts? Comparison of instrument-measured and national survey data in Kenya Andrew M. Linke 1,2
3
& Frank D. W. Witmer & John O’Loughlin
4
Received: 22 November 2019 / Accepted: 27 April 2020/ # Springer Nature B.V. 2020
Abstract
We evaluate the agreement between drought perceptions of two nationally representative samples of Kenyans (2014 and 2018) and instrument-measured rainfall and vegetation (IMRV) change. Our work adds to a growing body of research designed to evaluate people’s awareness and understanding of climate change and global warming. Relatively few existing studies in the developing world validate weather perceptions against meteorological observations, despite heavy reliance among these populations on rainfed agriculture and the importance of effective adaptation strategies for household livelihoods. We find a strong positive relationship between IMRV data and reporting among the 175 survey enumeration areas for 2800 respondents. Ours is the first study to establish such a definitive result using a research design that minimizes the effects of anomalous weather in any single year. Researchers who rely upon reported historical weather conditions can thus be more assured that their fieldwork informants recollect weather accurately. This awareness of recent changes in weather should facilitate the implementation of policies designed to mitigate long-term climate change impacts in sub-Saharan Africa. Keywords Droughts . Survey data . Kenya . Perceptions . Wether variability
Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-02002724-3) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.
* Andrew M. Linke [email protected]
1
Department of Geography, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT, USA
2
Peace Research Institute Oslo (PRIO), Oslo, Norway
3
Department of Computer Science & Engineering, University of Alaska Anchorage, Anchorage, AK, USA
4
Institute of Behavioral Science, University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, CO, USA
Climatic Change
1 Introduction As global temperatures rise, interannual temperature and precipitation variability will increase as well (Giorgi 2006; Dai 2013). Irregular and unpredictable seasons resulting from climatic change present great difficulties to those seeking to earn a livelihood in agricultural sectors. According to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fifth Assessment (AR5), “more frequent and/or longer heat waves and warms spells in Africa” should be expected (IPCC 2014, 57). Faced with such changes, populations must adapt, using a host of strategies for resilience in settings that are vulnerable to poverty and conflict. In this article, we evaluate the agreement between drought perceptions (we refer to these as “reported”) of two representative samples of Kenyans and instrument-measured rainfall and vegetation (hereafter “IMRV”) change in the survey respondents’ localities. As we explain in detail below, the success of climate
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