Droughts Prediction: a Methodology Based on Climate Seasonal Forecasts
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Droughts Prediction: a Methodology Based on Climate Seasonal Forecasts E. Arnone 1,2 & Marco Cucchi 3,4 & Sara Dal Gesso 2 & Marcello Petitta 5,6 & Sandro Calmanti 5 Received: 25 December 2019 / Accepted: 16 July 2020/ # The Author(s) 2020
Abstract
This study proposes a methodology for the drought assessment based on the seasonal forecasts. These are climate predictions of atmospheric variables, such as precipitation, temperature, wind speed, for upcoming season, up to 7 months. In regions particularly vulnerable to droughts and to changes in climate, such as the Mediterranean areas, predictions of precipitation with months in advance are crucial for understanding the possible shifts, for example, in water resource availability. Over Europe, practical applications of seasonal forecasts are still rare, because of the uncertainties of their skills; however, the predictability varies depending on the season and area of application. In this study, we describe a methodology which integrates, through a statistical approach, seasonal forecast and reanalysis data to assess the climate state, i.e. drought or not, of a region for predefined periods in the next future, at monthly scale. Additionally, the skill of the forecasts and the reliability of the released climate state assessment are estimated in terms of the false rate, i.e. the probability of missing alerts or false alarms. The methodology has been first built for a case study in Zakynthos (Greece) and then validated for a case study in Sicily (Italy). The selected locations represent two areas of the Mediterranean region often suffering from drought and water shortage situations. Results showed promising findings, with satisfying matching between predictions and observations, and false rates ranging from 1 to 50%, depending on the selected forecast period. Keywords Climate . Drought . Seasonal forecasts . System 5 . Water resources
1 Introduction Fulfilling water demand in situations of water scarcity is one of the major challenges faced by Water Utilities (WUs). Prolonged droughts due to alterations in climate are among the causes of water scarcity, particularly in the Mediterranean area, which is one of the regions most * E. Arnone [email protected] Extended author information available on the last page of the article
Arnone E. et al.
vulnerable to climate alterations (IPCC 2013; Forestieri et al. 2018). Climate alterations have direct impacts on the surface water balance and groundwater recharge (Arnone et al. 2018), and thus changes in the reservoir inputs. In such conditions, the management of water resources becomes a challenging task for WUs (Wilhite et al. 2007). However, WUs management routines scarcely consider climate information, and, when they do, they are based on the stationary assumption. Therefore, their response to water shortage relies on short-term strategies aimed at reducing water consumption and improving watershed management, rather than focusing on comprehensive planning for the long-term consequences of climate change. When planni
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