Ecological Security Assessment of the G20 and its Drivers: EF-Path-STIRPAT Modeling
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Original Paper
Ecological Security Assessment of the G20 and its Drivers: EF-Path-STIRPAT Modeling Zhili Zuo,1 Haixiang Guo,1,2,3 Jinhua Cheng,1,2 and Shicheng Li1,2 Received 24 September 2019; accepted 5 May 2020
Because of the increasing global attention being given to ecological security, the need to identify and quantify its underlying causes has sparked heated debate. However, there has not been any overall assessment of the ecological security in the G20 countries, which could seriously hinder sustainable development. Therefore, to investigate the ecological security situation in the G20 countries from 1999 to 2016 and facilitate the evaluation, three ecological indicators were introduced, namely ecological footprint (EF), ecological deficit or surplus, and eco-efficiency. To compare the driving factors of ecological security and provide a targeted reference for policymakers, the relationships between gross domestic product, population, energy consumption, technology, urbanization, and EF were then evaluated. To do so, the EF-Path-STIRPAT model was used, which is a combined path analysis and a STIRPAT model based on EF, and it was able to calculate the direct path elasticity coefficients between the variables to reveal the mechanisms and interactions. It was found that (a) the EF of developing countries is generally higher than that of developed countries in the G20, of which Russia has the highest EF, (b) from 1999 to 2016, the ecological status of the G20 gradually improved, and Argentina changed from an ecological deficit to an ecological surplus in 2005, and (c) the eco-efficiency of the G20 has been improved. ChinaÕs ecoefficiency increased significantly by 7.5% from 1999 to 2016, and the ecological environment improved significantly. According to the results of the EF-STIRPAT model, per capita, wealth should be increased steadily in developing countries, and developed countries should lie in the development of environmentally friendly high-tech industry and economic transformation to reduce energy intensity, improve their energy efficiency, and further optimize the energy structure. KEY WORDS: Ecological footprint, Path analysis, STIRPAT model, G20, Ecological security.
INTRODUCTION Rapid global development, urbanization, and industrialization, as well as an exponential growth in 1
School of Economics and Management, China University of Geosciences, Wuhan 430074, China. 2 School of Economics and Management, Mineral Resource Strategy and Policy Research Center of China University of Geosciences, Wuhan 430074, China. 3 To whom correspondence should be addressed; e-mail: [email protected]
the worldÕs population and materials consumption, have been severely challenging the EarthÕs ecosystems for several decades (Wackernagel and Rees 1998). As ecological degradation is a common global problem, common resource management and governance are needed if there is to be a sustainable future. To safeguard ecological resources, infrastructure, and services at national and international levels (Hodson and Ma
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