Econometrics

This book is intended for a first year graduate course in econometrics. However, the first six chapters have no matrix algebra and can be used in an advanced undergraduate class. This can be supplemented by some of the material in later chapters that do n

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Springer Berlin Heidelberg New York Barcelona Budapest Hong Kong London Milan Paris Santa Clara Singapore Tokyo

Badi H. Baltagi

Econometrics With 33 Figures and 19 Tables

,

Springer

Professor Badi H. Baltagi Texas A&M University Department of Economics College Station Texas 77843-4228 USA

ISBN 978-3-540-63617-5 Cataloging-in-Publication Data applied for Die Deutsche Bibliothek - CIP-Einheitsaufnahme Baltagi, Badi H.: Econometrics / Badi H. Baltagi. - Berlin; Heidelberg; New York; BarceIona; Budapest; Hongkong; London; Mailand; Paris; Santa Clara; Singapur; Tokio: Springer, 1998 ISBN 978-3-540-63617-5 ISBN 978-3-662-00516-3 (eBook) DOI 10.1007/978-3-662-00516-3 This work is subject to copyright. AII rights are reserved, whether the whole or part of the material is concerned, specifically the rights of translation, reprinting, reuse of illustrations, recitation, broadcasting, reproduction on microfilm or in any other way, and storage in data banks. Duplication of this publication or parts thereof is permitted only under the provisions of the German Copyright Law of September 9, 1965, in its current version, and permission for use must always be obtained from Springer-Verlag. Violations are liable for prosecution under the German Copyright Law. ©

Springer-Verlag Berlin· Heidelberg 1998

The use of general descriptive names, registered names, trademarks, etc. in this publication does not imply, even in the absence of a specific statement, that such names are exempt from the relevant protective laws and regulations and therefore free for general use. Cover-Design: Erich Kirchner, Heidelberg SPIN 10650815 42/2202-5 4 3 2 1 O - Printed on acid-free paper

Preface This book is intended for a first year graduate course in econometrics. However, the first six chapters have no matrix algebra and can be used in an advanced undergraduate class. This can be supplemented by some of the material in later chapters that do not require matrix algebra, like the first part of Chapter lIon simultaneous equations and Chapter 14 on time-series analysis. This book teaches some of the basic econometric methods and the underlying assumptions behind them. Estimation, hypotheses testing and prediction are three recurrent themes in this book. Some uses of econometric methods include (i) empirical testing of economic theory, whether it is the permanent income consumption theory or purchasing power parity, (ii) forecasting, whether it is GNP or unemployment in the U.S. economy or future sales in the computer industry. (iii) Estimation of price elasticities of demand, or returns to scale in production. More importantly, econometric methods can be used to simulate the effect of policy changes like a tax increase on gasoline consumption, or a ban on advertising on cigarette consumption. It is left to the reader to choose among the available econometric software to use, like TSP, SHAZAM, PcGive, HUMMER, LIMDEP, SAS, STATA, GAUSS and EViews. The empirical illustrations in the book utilize a variety of these software packages. Of course, the