Efficient reliability analysis of earth dam slope stability using extreme gradient boosting method
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RESEARCH PAPER
Efficient reliability analysis of earth dam slope stability using extreme gradient boosting method Lin Wang1,2 • Chongzhi Wu1 • Libin Tang1 • Wengang Zhang1,3,4 • Suzanne Lacasse5 • Hanlong Liu1,3,4 Lei Gao2
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Received: 9 August 2019 / Accepted: 2 April 2020 Ó Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature 2020
Abstract Reliability analysis approach provides a rational means to quantitatively evaluate the safety of geotechnical structures from a probabilistic perspective. However, it suffers from a known criticism of extensive computational requirements and poor efficiency, which hinders its application in the reliability analysis of earth dam slope stability. Until now, the effects of spatially variable soil properties on the earth dam slope reliability remain unclear. This calls for a novel method to perform reliability analysis of earth dam slope stability accounting for the spatial variability of soil properties. This paper develops an efficient extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost)-based reliability analysis approach for evaluating the earth dam slope failure probability. With the aid of the proposed approach, the failure probability of earth dam slope can be evaluated rationally and efficiently. The proposed approach is illustrated using a practical case adapted from Ashigong earth dam. Results show that the XGBoost-based reliability analysis approach is able to predict the earth dam slope failure probability with reasonable accuracy and efficiency. The coefficient of variations and scale of fluctuations of soil properties affect the earth dam slope failure probability significantly. Moreover, the earth dam slope failure probability is highly dependent on the selection of auto-correlation function (ACF), and the widely used single exponential ACF tends to provide an unconservative estimate in this study. Keywords Ashigong earth dam Extreme gradient boosting Machine learning Reliability analysis Spatial variability
1 Introduction
& Wengang Zhang [email protected] 1
School of Civil Engineering, Chongqing University, Chongqing 400045, People’s Republic of China
2
Key Laboratory of Ministry of Education for Geomechanics and Embankment Engineering, Hohai University, Nanjing 210098, People’s Republic of China
3
Key Laboratory of New Technology for Construction of Cities in Mountain Area, Chongqing University, Chongqing 400045, People’s Republic of China
4
National Joint Engineering Research Center of Geohazards Prevention in the Reservoir Areas, Chongqing University, Chongqing 400045, People’s Republic of China
5
Department of Natural Hazards, Norwegian Geotechnical Institute, Oslo, Norway
The safety of earth dam has attracted increasing concern in geotechnical engineering practice because earth dam is the most common type of dam in the world and its failure may induce considerably detrimental social and economic impacts (e.g., [16, 49]). Due to the fact that a large number of the existing earth dams suffer from severe degrad
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