Ensemble fuzzy MCDM for spatial assessment of flood susceptibility in Ibadan, Nigeria
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Ensemble fuzzy MCDM for spatial assessment of flood susceptibility in Ibadan, Nigeria Abdulwaheed Tella1 · Abdul‑Lateef Balogun1 Received: 2 April 2020 / Accepted: 27 August 2020 © Springer Nature B.V. 2020
Abstract Ibadan, one of the largest cities in West Africa, experiences recurrent flood hazards, causing severe damages to lives and properties. Although various flood susceptibility models have evolved to mitigate flood hazards in different parts of the world, model performances vary according to the peculiarity of the study area and conditioning factors. Therefore, specialized studies are essential to determine model performances for specific locations. This study develops an integrated spatial multi-criteria decision-making model to classify flood susceptibility in Ibadan, Nigeria. For the improvement of the weighting accuracy of the flood causative criteria, Fuzzy AHP (FAHP) was integrated with GIS for the weight computation and overlay process. Ten flood causative factors were evaluated using the AHP and FAHP models. Results indicate rainfall, runoff, and distance to stream as the most significant flood causative factors with FAHP and AHP weights of 22%, 18%, 16%, and 23%, 23%, 18%, respectively. The FAHP and AHP maps identified the southern region as the most susceptible, with the FAHP also highlighting the susceptibility of the central region. The models’ accuracies were validated by overlaying the AHP and FAHP maps with locations of previous flood occurrences in the study area. The Fuzzy AHP map had a 91% alignment with the historical flood locations while the AHP model produced a 45% match, confirming the higher accuracy of the FAHP model and suitability for flood susceptibility mapping in Nigeria and other West African cities. Keywords Africa · Fuzzy AHP · Flood susceptibility · GIS · Nigeria
1 Introduction Floods are one of the most disastrous environmental hazards that cause severe harm to lives and properties, resulting in damages worth billions of dollars globally (Messner and Meyer 2006; Hapuarachchi et al. 2011; Field 2014; Lyu et al. 2018; Mishra and Sinha 2020; de Koning et al. 2019). It is a disastrous phenomenon that leads to submerging or water * Abdul‑Lateef Balogun [email protected] 1
Geospatial Analysis and Modelling (GAM) Research Laboratory, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Universiti Teknologi PETRONAS (UTP), 32610 Seri Iskandar, Perak, Malaysia
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Natural Hazards
overflow of the land which is usually associated with natural and anthropogenic conditions (Adefisan et al. 2015; Mishra and Sinha 2020). According to Courty et al. (2018) and Billi et al. (2015), natural factors, particularly rainfall intensity, which has risen recently because of climate change effects, are the primary cause of flood hazards. Also, anthropogenic factors such as population growth, urbanization, poor drainage system, poor land use, inadequate floodplain management, and poor water reservoir management influence and increase flood risk (Mbow et al. 20
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