Environmental Crises

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s von Storch Richard S.J.Tol Götz Flöser (Editors)

Environmental Crises with 42 Figures

Professor Hans von Storch GKSS Forschungszentrum Inst. Küstenforschung Max-Planck-Str. 1 21502 Geesthacht Germany Professor Dr. Richard S.J.Tol Economic and Social Research Institute Whitaker Square Sir John Rogerson's Quay Dublin 2 Ireland Dr. Götz Flöser GKSS Forschungszentrum Inst. Küstenforschung Max-Planck-Str. 1 21502 Geesthacht Germany

Library of Congress Control Number: 2007938328 ISBN

978-3-540-75895-2 Springer Berlin Heidelberg New York

This work is subject to copyright. All rights are reserved, whether the whole or part of the material is concerned, specifically the rights of translation, reprinting, reuse of illustrations, recitation, broadcasting, reproduction on microfilm or in any other way, and storage in data banks. Duplication of this publication or parts thereof is permitted only under the provisions of the German Copyright Law of September 9, 1965, in its current version, and permission for use must always be obtained from Springer-Verlag. Violations are liable to prosecution under the German Copyright Law. Springer is a part of Springer Science+Business Media springer.com © Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2008 The use of general descriptive names, registered names, trademarks, etc. in this publication does not imply, even in the absence of a specific statement, that such names are exempt from the relevant protective laws and regulations and therefore free for general use. Cover design: deblik, Berlin Production: Almas Schimmel Typesetting: Camera-ready by Editors Printed on acid-free paper

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Contents

Introduction Hans von Storch and Richard Tol . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

1

Climate Change Scenarios – Purpose and Construction Hans von Storch . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .

5

Economic Scenarios for Global Change Richard S.J. Tol . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 17 Climate Change: Regulating the Unknown Richard S.J. Tol . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 37 Curbing the Omnipresence of Lead in the European Environment Since the 1970s – a Successful Example of Efficient Environmental Policy Hans von Storch . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 53 Mission Impossible? Media Coverage of Scientific Findings Steffen Kolb, Steffen Burkhardt . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 65 Fishing for Sustainable Policies – Political Causes of Over-fishing and Solutions for Sustainable Fisheries Christian von Dorrien . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 83 Oil Pollution in Marine Ecosystems – Policy, Fate, Effects and Response Carlo van Bernem, Johanna B. Wesnigk, Michael Wunderlich, Susanne Adam, Ulrich Callies . . . . . . . . .