Epidemic Trend of COVID-19 Transmission in India During Lockdown-1 Phase
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ORIGINAL PAPER
Epidemic Trend of COVID-19 Transmission in India During Lockdown-1 Phase Pooja Mahajan1 · Jyotsna Kaushal1
© Springer Science+Business Media, LLC, part of Springer Nature 2020
Abstract To assess the current epidemic trend of COVID-19/SARS-CoV-2 in India, the epidemic dynamics of COVID-19 cases in India in terms of Case Fatality Rate (CFR), Case Recovery Rate (CRR) and Mortality rate (MR) COVID-19 have been evaluated during Lockdown-1. The analysis includes (i) epidemic curve of Covid-19 cases (ii) demographic analysis (iii) calculation of the CFR and CRR by different methods (iv) calculation of MR (v) Geo-temporal analysis (vi) epidemiological transmission factor (vii) evaluation of the effects and impact of infection, prevention and control in India. A total of 10,815 COVID-19 confirmed cases have been reported in 31 states/union territories as of April 14, 2020 with 9272 active cases (85.73%), 1190 cured/discharged (11%), and 353 deaths (3.23%). Among confirmed cases, most cases (59%) are aged 20–49 which is working age in India and 76% cases are reported for men. The median age of Indian COVID-19 patients found to be 39. As of April 14, the CFR per total cases in India is 3.32% and per closed cases is 23.27%. The CRR per total cases in India is 11.00% and per closed cases is 76.72%, which indicates that the recovery rate of COVID-19 is more than the fatality rate in India. The prevention and control measures taken by the state and central governments at all levels and measure of maintenance of social distancing by people have resulted in effective curbing in the COVID-19 transmission in India. Keywords COVID-19 · Corona virus · Epidemics · Fatality Rate
Introduction A novel Corona virus is a category of pathogens, which mostly attacks on the respiratory system of human beings. Corona virus outbreaks are emerging earlier also in the form of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) and Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS) [1–4]. Now, in the present times, it emerges as a COVID-19, which is caused by the SARS2 Coronavirus and poses a significant risk to the human race. In December 2019, a number of patients with pneumonia symptoms were reported in Wuhan and Hubei Province of China and later identified as symptoms caused due to the spread of corona virus [5]. Epidemiologically, these patients were later on found to be linked to an animal and seafood market of Wuhan [6]. Later on, the Wuhan city * Jyotsna Kaushal [email protected]; [email protected] 1
Center for Water Sciences, Chitkara University Institute of Engineering and Technology, Chitkara University, Punjab 140401 Rajpura, India
of China was recognized as the epicentre of the COVID19 disease and claimed for spreading the disease across the world. Around 41 lab confirmed COVID-19 patients reported and admitted to hospital up to January 2, 2020 in China. These patients have symptoms of coughing, sneezing, breathing problems, chest pain, indigestion, and respiratory illness. It was also observed that most of th
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