Epidemiological and time series analysis on the incidence and death of AIDS and HIV in China
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RESEARCH ARTICLE
Open Access
Epidemiological and time series analysis on the incidence and death of AIDS and HIV in China Bin Xu, Jiayuan Li and Mengqiao Wang*
Abstract Background: To investigate the regional and age-specific distribution of AIDS/HIV in China from 2004 to 2017 and to conduct time series analysis of the epidemiological trends. Method: Using official surveillance data from publicly accessible database of the national infectious disease reporting system, we described long-term patterns of incidence and death in AIDS/HIV, analyzed age group and regional epidemic characteristics, and established Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) models for time series analysis. Result: The incidence and death of AIDS/HIV have increased rapidly from 2004 to 2017, with significant difference regarding age groups and provincial regions (a few provinces appear as hot spots). With goodness-of-fit criteria and using data from 2004 to 2015, ARIMA (0,1,3) × (2,0,0), ARIMA (3,1,0) × (1,0,1), and ARIMA (0,1,2) × (2,0,0) were chosen as the optimal model for the incidence of AIDS, HIV, and combined; ARIMA (0,1,3) × (1,0,0) was chosen as the optimal model for the death of AIDS, HIV, and combined. ARIMA models robustly predicted the incidence and death of AIDS/HIV in 2016 and 2017. Conclusion: A focused intervention strategy targeting specific regions and age groups is essential for the prevention and control of AIDS/HIV. ARIMA models function as data-driven and evidence-based methods to forecast the trends of infectious diseases and formulate public health policies. Keywords: AIDS, HIV, Incidence, Death, ARIMA model
Background Acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) is a serious infectious disease caused by the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), which mainly invades the immune system (particularly on CD4+ T lymphocytes, monocyte macrophages, and dendritic cells) [1]. The main manifestation of AIDS is the gradual to complete deficiency of immune response to the various opportunistic infections, tumors, and abnormities [2]. When * Correspondence: [email protected] Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, West China School of Public Health and West China Fourth Hospital, Sichuan University, Renmin South Road 16, Chengdu, Sichuan Province 610041, PR China
healthy individuals initially get infected with HIV, they become HIV carriers, but it may generally take years for most carriers to develop AIDS symptoms when they become AIDS patients. Nevertheless, both HIV carriers and AIDS patients are capable of infecting others with HIV through body fluids (blood, semen fluid, vaginal fluid, breast milk etc.) [3]. With few therapeutical drugs or treatments available, AIDS/HIV remains one of the leading causes of morbidity and mortality worldwide, and poses huge challenges for public health and population wellness both in developing and developed countries [4, 5]. By 2018, there has been approximately 76.1
© The Author(s). 2020 Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 Internati
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