Estimating transmission dynamics and serial interval of the first wave of COVID-19 infections under different control me
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RESEARCH ARTICLE
Open Access
Estimating transmission dynamics and serial interval of the first wave of COVID-19 infections under different control measures: a statistical analysis in Tunisia from February 29 to May 5, 2020 Khouloud Talmoudi1,2*, Mouna Safer1,2, Hejer Letaief1,2, Aicha Hchaichi1,2, Chahida Harizi3, Sonia Dhaouadi1, Sondes Derouiche1, Ilhem Bouaziz1, Donia Gharbi1, Nourhene Najar4, Molka Osman1, Ines Cherif4, Rym Mlallekh4, Oumaima Ben-Ayed4, Yosr Ayedi4, Leila Bouabid1, Souha Bougatef1, Nissaf Bouafif ép Ben-Alaya1,2,4 and Mohamed Kouni Chahed4
Abstract Background: Describing transmission dynamics of the outbreak and impact of intervention measures are critical to planning responses to future outbreaks and providing timely information to guide policy makers decision. We estimate serial interval (SI) and temporal reproduction number (Rt) of SARS-CoV-2 in Tunisia. Methods: We collected data of investigations and contact tracing between March 1, 2020 and May 5, 2020 as well as illness onset data during the period February 29–May 5, 2020 from National Observatory of New and Emerging Diseases of Tunisia. Maximum likelihood (ML) approach is used to estimate dynamics of Rt. Results: Four hundred ninety-one of infector-infectee pairs were involved, with 14.46% reported pre-symptomatic transmission. SI follows Gamma distribution with mean 5.30 days [95% Confidence Interval (CI) 4.66–5.95] and standard deviation 0.26 [95% CI 0.23–0.30]. Also, we estimated large changes in Rt in response to the combined lockdown interventions. The Rt moves from 3.18 [95% Credible Interval (CrI) 2.73–3.69] to 1.77 [95% CrI 1.49–2.08] with curfew prevention measure, and under the epidemic threshold (0.89 [95% CrI 0.84–0.94]) by national lockdown measure. Conclusions: Overall, our findings highlight contribution of interventions to interrupt transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in Tunisia. Keywords: Coronavirus, Reproduction number, Serial interval, Lockdown, Statistical models, Tunisia
* Correspondence: [email protected] 1 National Observatory of New and Emerging Diseases, Tunis, Tunisia 2 Research laboratory “Epidemiology and Prevention of Cardiovascular Diseases in Tunisia”, Tunis, Tunisia Full list of author information is available at the end of the article © The Author(s). 2020 Open Access This article is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License, which permits use, sharing, adaptation, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, as long as you give appropriate credit to the original author(s) and the source, provide a link to the Creative Commons licence, and indicate if changes were made. The images or other third party material in this article are included in the article's Creative Commons licence, unless indicated otherwise in a credit line to the material. If material is not included in the article's Creative Commons licence and your intended use is not permitted by statutory regulation or exceeds the permitted use, you will need to obtain permission directly from the copyri
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