Evaluating drivers of housing vacancy: a longitudinal analysis of large U.S. cities from 1960 to 2010
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Evaluating drivers of housing vacancy: a longitudinal analysis of large U.S. cities from 1960 to 2010 Galen Newman1 · Ryun Jung Lee2 · Donghwan Gu2 · Yunmi Park3 · Jesse Saginor4 · Shannon Van Zandt2 · Wei Li2 Received: 30 March 2018 / Accepted: 31 May 2019 © Springer Nature B.V. 2019
Abstract Housing vacancies have become a major issue in depopulating, or shrinking, cities. All urban areas, however, are subject to some degree of vacant housing. A small percentage is necessary to allow mobility and sufficient space for growth, and is an indicator of healthy urbanization. Conversely, widespread housing vacancies may indicate structural crisis due to property abandonment. Land area and population changes, shifts in employment, demographic trends, development intensity, and economic conditions are primary drivers of housing vacancies. The degree to which these interrelated factors contribute can fluctuate by city. This paper explores relationships between factors contributing to housing vacancies over time to identify changes in underlying factors. The research examines U.S. cities of over 100,000 population over the period of 1960–2010, conducting multivariate regression analyses in 10-year periods and performing longitudinal panel analyses. The regressions examine changes in urban housing vacancy factors over time while the panel models assess which factors have remained consistent. The panel model results indicate that population change, percent nonwhite populations, unemployment and density are consistent, significant predictors of housing vacancies, The incremental regression models suggest that unemployment and regional location have also been strong indicators of housing vacancies. These results, while somewhat exploratory, provide insight into long-term data that cities should track over time to determine the optimal policy approaches to offset housing vacancies. Keywords Urban regeneration · Housing vacancies · Vacant land · Longitudinal analysis · Regression
Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (https://doi.org/10.1007/s1090 1-019-09684-w) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users. * Galen Newman [email protected] Extended author information available on the last page of the article
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1 Introduction Elevated levels of urban housing vacancies are a consistent concern to communities and policymakers in the U.S (Fields and Uffer 2016). While the 2008 foreclosure crisis placed the housing vacancy issue under a spotlight and further amplified such concerns, what we know about long term neighborhood housing vacancy is still limited (Immergluck 2016). Communities exemplifying the post-2008 glut of abandoned homes helped both researchers and practitioners to notice a widespread pre-existing condition of urban abandonment in many cities that recalled the conditions that triggered Urban Renewal programs in the 1960s. Few attempts, however, have been made to measure both the extent of and conditions contr
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