Evaluating the effects of downscaled climate projections on groundwater storage and simulated base-flow contribution to
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Evaluating the effects of downscaled climate projections on groundwater storage and simulated base-flow contribution to the North Fork Red River and Lake Altus, southwest Oklahoma (USA) Laura G. Labriola 1,2 & John H. Ellis 3 & Subhrendu Gangopadhyay 4 & Tom Pruitt 4 & Pierre-Emmanuel Kirstsetter 2,5 & Yang Hong 2,5 Received: 12 March 2020 / Accepted: 12 August 2020 # This is a U.S. government work and not under copyright protection in the U.S.; foreign copyright protection may apply 2020
Abstract Potential effects of projected climate variability on base flow and groundwater storage in the North Fork Red River aquifer, Oklahoma (USA), were estimated using downscaled climate model data coupled with a numerical groundwater-flow model. The North Fork Red River aquifer discharges groundwater to the North Fork Red River, which provides inflow to Lake Altus. To approximate future conditions, Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 climate data were downscaled to the watershed and a time-series of scaling factors were developed and interpolated for three climate scenarios (central tendency, warmer and drier, and less warm and wetter) representing future climate conditions for the period 2045–2074. These scaling factors were then applied to a soil-water-balance model to produce groundwater recharge and evapotranspiration estimates. A MODFLOW groundwater-flow model of the North Fork Red River aquifer used the scaled recharge and evapotranspiration data to estimate changes in base flow and water-surface elevation of Lake Altus. Compared to a baseline scenario, the mean percent change in annual base flow during 2045–2074 was −10.8 and −15.9% for the central tendency and warmer/drier scenarios, respectively; the mean percent change in annual base flow for the less-warm/wetter scenario was +15.7%. The mean annual percent change in groundwater storage for the central tendency, warmer/drier, and less-warm/wetter climate scenarios and the baseline are −2.7, −3.2, and +3.0%, respectively. The range of outcomes from the climate scenarios may be influenced by variability in the downscaled climate data for precipitation more than for temperature. Keywords Groundwater management . Groundwater recharge/water budget . USA . Climate change
Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (https://doi.org/10.1007/s10040-020-02230-x) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users. * Laura G. Labriola [email protected] 1
US Geological Survey, Oklahoma Texas Water Science Center, 202 NW 66th ST, Oklahoma City, OK 73116, USA
2
School of Civil Engineering and Environmental Science, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK 73072, USA
3
US Geological Survey, Oklahoma Texas Water Science Center, 19241 David Memorial Dr, Ste 180, The Woodlands, TX, USA
4
Water Resources Engineering and Management Group, Technical Service Center, Bureau of Reclamation, Denver, CO, USA
5
School of Meteorology, University of Oklahoma, Norman, OK 73072, USA
Introduction Climate variability of hydrologic
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