Evaluating the rate of change and predicting the future scenario of spatial pattern using Markov chain model: a study fr
- PDF / 1,595,584 Bytes
- 12 Pages / 595.276 x 790.866 pts Page_size
- 55 Downloads / 188 Views
ORIGINAL PAPER
Evaluating the rate of change and predicting the future scenario of spatial pattern using Markov chain model: a study from Baghmundi C.D. Block of Purulia district, West Bengal Debasis Ghosh 1
&
Manas Karmakar 1 & Monali Banerjee 1 & Mrinal Mandal 2
Received: 5 December 2019 / Accepted: 18 October 2020 # Società Italiana di Fotogrammetria e Topografia (SIFET) 2020
Abstract In the era of twenty-first century, the endless demands of human have promoted land use land cover (LULC) change, and its understanding is more essential for proper management and future planning towards the sustainable development. An analysis of LULC is made for the Baghmundi Community Development (C.D.) Block of Purulia district of West Bengal, India to observe the changes over time. The Landsat images of 1972, 1992, 1999, 2009 and 2019 are taken to prepare the LULC maps using RS and GIS techniques. Moreover, the Markov chain model is computed to estimate LULC change of 2039. Thematic maps of different years show several changes in LULC. An accuracy assessment of the classifications of LULC of the years 1999, 2009 and 2019 is calculated as 81.32%, 81.36% and 80.16% respectively. The kappa coefficient is also computed for the same years to understand the level of agreement between classified LULC type and ground level LULC type. The values of kappa coefficient are 0.76 for 1999, 0.77 for 2009 and 0.75 for 2019. Within the time frame of 1972 to 2019, the vegetation cover declined to 44.79 km2, while the built-up area increased to 40.21 km2. Based on the predicted model, the vegetation cover may lose 33.60 km2 in 2039 from the year 2019, and it may mainly be acquired by the agricultural land (21.94 km2) and built-up area (7.93 km2). Keywords Markov chain . Baghmundi . LULC . Rate of change . RS and GIS
Introduction The whole world has been witnessing transformation from natural landscape to ethnically controlled landscape (López and Sierra 2010; Schulz et al. 2010). This transformation is considered as land use change, which has an impact on
* Debasis Ghosh [email protected] Manas Karmakar [email protected] Monali Banerjee [email protected] Mrinal Mandal [email protected] 1
Department of Geography, University of Calcutta, 35, Ballygunge Circular Road, Ballygunge, Kolkata, West Bengal 700019, India
2
Department of Geography, Sidho-Kanho-Birsha University, Sainik School, Ranchi Road, Purulia, West Bengal 723104, India
climate change, hydrological equilibrium, soil characteristics, ecological balance and other environmental phenomena (Vitousek 1994; Meshesha et al. 2014; Butt et al. 2015). Over the last 50 years, natural landscapes have been changed more than in any other period of human history to achieve human well-being and economic development (Millennium Ecosystem Assessment 2005). Changes in land cover type into land use have some negative impacts on the environment as well as socio-economic conditions (Dong et al. 2009; Butt et al. 2015). During this time period, a significant change, such
Data Loading...
