Evaluation and Comparison of the Effectiveness Rate of the Various Meteorological Parameters on UNEP Aridity Index Using
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Evaluation and Comparison of the Effectiveness Rate of the Various Meteorological Parameters on UNEP Aridity Index Using Backward Multiple Ridge Regression Abdol Rassoul Zarei 1 & Mohammad Reza Mahmoudi 2 Received: 30 May 2020 / Accepted: 8 November 2020/ # Springer Nature B.V. 2020
Abstract
Climate changes and its undesirable impacts (such as melting glaciers, the occurrence of floods, hurricanes and droughts, etc.) are among the most important disasters that human beings have faced in recent decades. Considering the important role of the meteorological parameters on climate change, in this research the effectiveness rate of various meteorological parameters including the mean minimum and maximum annual temperature (Max-Temp and Min-Temp), the mean annual temperature (M-Temp), the mean annual sunshine (Sunshine), the mean annual relative humidity (Humidity), the mean annual wind speed (Wind) and the mean of annual precipitation (Rainfall) on United Nations Environmental Programme (UNEP) aridity index was assessed and prioritized using the Backward Multiple Ridge Regression (BMRR). In this study, the meteorological data series of 25 synoptic stations in Iran with different climate conditions during 1967–2017 was used. The results indicated that the BMRR method had a nice capability to predict the UNEP index using the above-mentioned meteorological parameters (the linear regression between observed and predicted the UNEP index had no difference with perfect reliable line (Y = X) at 0.05 significant levels and the R2 between two mentioned data series were significant at 0.01 levels at all stations). According to the results, Rainfall, Wind and Max-Temp parameters were the most effective parameters on the UNEP aridity index, respectively and the Min-Temp, M-Temp and Sunshine parameters were the least effective parameters on the UNEP index, respectively. Therefore, it is suggested that all human activities that have direct or indirect effects in the increasing temperature and reducing the rainfall must be revised and optimized based on the principles of sustainable development. Keywords Multiple ridge regression . Climate . Meteorological parameters . UNEP aridity index
* Abdol Rassoul Zarei [email protected]; [email protected] Extended author information available on the last page of the article
Zarei A.R., Mahmoudi M.R.
1 Introduction Climate change is one of the most important catastrophes that human beings face in the present century (Chu et al. 2019; Katrantsiotis et al. 2019; Wei et al. 2019; Zarei et al. 2019; Zhai and Helman 2019). The climate changes that humans also had an effective role in creating by inappropriate management of natural resources, over-utilized of natural resources, deforestation, industrialization, over-production of greenhouse gases and carbon dioxide, etc., has different impacts worldwide such as melting glaciers, human migration, the occurrence of floods, hurricanes and droughts, etc. (Amraoui et al. 2019; Cattaneo et al. 2019; Malone et al. 2019; Sellers et al. 2019). On t
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