Evaluation and projection of daily maximum and minimum temperatures over China using the high-resolution NEX-GDDP datase
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Evaluation and projection of daily maximum and minimum temperatures over China using the high‑resolution NEX‑GDDP dataset Yi Wu1 · Chiyuan Miao1 · Qingyun Duan1 · Chenwei Shen1 · Xuewei Fan1 Received: 27 January 2020 / Accepted: 29 July 2020 © Springer-Verlag GmbH Germany, part of Springer Nature 2020
Abstract A new bias-corrected, statistically downscaled product, the NASA Earth Exchange Global Daily Downscaled Projections (NEX-GDDP) dataset, has been developed and released to help in understanding climate change at local to regional scales. Here, we evaluate the performance of the NEX-GDDP data in simulating daily maximum temperature (TX) and daily minimum temperature (TN) in the historical period 1961–2005 over China at national and regional scales. Projected future changes in TX and TN are assessed under the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) 4.5 and 8.5 emissions scenarios. Results show that the NEX-GDDP data can capture the basic spatial patterns of TX and TN, but these results underestimate the warming trends of TX and TN from 1961 to 2005 over China. The largest biases are found in western China due to its complex terrain conditions; these biases are 2.33 and 2.21 times larger than those found in eastern China for TX and TN, respectively. The climate projections show that the difference in uncertainties is small between the east and the west, and higher warming changes correspond to greater uncertainties. The increasing trends under the RCP8.5 are 2.22 and 2.31 times the size found under the RCP4.5 by the end of the twenty-first century for TX and TN, respectively. The Tibetan plateau has the fastest warming trend under the two scenarios. Keywords Daily maximum temperature · Daily minimum temperature · NEX-GDDP data · China
1 Introduction The phenomenon of global warming has generated great concern worldwide, because it has a series of effects on the natural environment and human society (Smith et al. 2015; Matthews et al. 2017; Sun et al. 2019; Gou et al. 2020; Sun et al. 2020). In recent years, some extreme climate events such as floods (Blöschl et al. 2017), droughts (Mazdiyasni and AghaKouchak 2015) have had great impacts on humans and ecosystems. Among them, the influence of extreme maximum and minimum temperature events is most widespread and obvious, and observations show that the frequency of these events is increasing (Yin et al. 2015; Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-020-05404-1) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users. * Chiyuan Miao [email protected] 1
State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Faculty of Geographical Science, Beijing Normal University, Beijing 100875, China
Zheng et al. 2019). The fifth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) points out that future global temperature will continue to increase and the occurrence of extreme weather and climate events will become more frequent (IPCC 2014). To fac
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