Evaluation of Global Water Resources Reanalysis Runoff Products for Local Water Resources Applications: Case Study-Upper
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Evaluation of Global Water Resources Reanalysis Runoff Products for Local Water Resources Applications: Case Study-Upper Blue Nile Basin of Ethiopia Haileyesus Belay Lakew 1 & Semu Ayalew Moges 1,2 & Emmanouil N. Anagnostou 2 & Efthymios I. Nikolopoulos 2 & Dereje Hailu Asfaw 1 Received: 8 February 2018 / Accepted: 14 January 2019/ # Springer Nature B.V. 2019
Abstract The increasing availability of global observation datasets, both from in situ and remote sensors, and advancements in earth system models and data assimilation algorithms have generated a number of water resources reanalysis products that are available at global scale and high spatial and temporal resolutions. These products hold great potential for water resources applications, but their levels of uncertainty need to be evaluated at local scale. In this work, we evaluate the runoff product from two multi-model global water resources reanalyses (WRRs), available at 0.5° (WRR1) and 0.25° (WRR2) grid resolutions, which were produced within the framework of a European Union project (eartH2Observe) in the upper Blue Nile basin. Analysis indicates that the recently released WRR2 UniK product exhibits consistently better performance statistics than the earlier coarser-resolution WRR1 and the rest of the WRR2 products at all ranges of temporal and spatial scale evaluated. Streamflow simulations based on gauged rainfall forcing and the locally set hydrological model CREST outperforms all the other products, including UniK. Global hydrological products can be a data source for various water resources planning and management applications in data-scarce areas of Africa. This study cautions against using available global hydrological products without prior uncertainty evaluation. Keywords Blue Nile . eartH2Observe . Water resource reanalysis . Error characterization
1 Introduction The combined effects of growing population, and urbanization will greatly increase the water demands of the world’s population, while climate variability causes supply to become more erratic and uncertain. The World Bank estimates that, with the continuation of current population growth and water management practices, the world will face a 40% * Haileyesus Belay Lakew [email protected] Extended author information available on the last page of the article
Lakew H.B. et al.
shortfall between forecasted demand and available water supply by 2030. The feeding of nine billion people by 2050 will require a 60% increase in agricultural production and a 15% increase in water withdrawal. More than half the world’s population now lives in urban areas, and this number is growing fast, also increasing water withdrawal. By 2025, an estimated 1.8 billion people will be living in regions or countries with water scarcity. The combined effects of these growing demands could cost some regions up to 6% of their gross domestic product (GDP), spur migration, and spark conflict (World Bank 2018). Water resources planning, development, and management for sustainable socioeconomic development in th
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